Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US core PCE meets expectations, inflation pressure rises, but the Fed's rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [2][15]. - The 8 - month manufacturing PMI in China is still in the contraction range, with a small month - on - month increase, and the domestic market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][23]. - The market for various commodities shows different trends, including weakening in steel prices, potential increases in palm oil and soybean oil prices in the long - term, and different supply - demand situations and price trends in other commodities [5][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US core PCE meets expectations, with the annual rate of the July core PCE price index at 2.9% and the monthly rate at 0.3%. The inflation pressure rises, but it won't change the rate - cut rhythm, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate [16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The July core PCE meets market expectations, and Fed officials release dovish signals. The index is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the rate - cut expectation [20]. - Investment advice: The market risk appetite remains high under the rate - cut expectation, and the index will fluctuate strongly [21]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's August manufacturing PMI is 49.4. The domestic market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to price transmission [22][23]. - Investment advice: Consider reducing long positions in stock index allocations [24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 782.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market will fluctuate, and the subsequent inflation change needs attention [25]. - Investment advice: The bond market is in a short - term fluctuating trend. Pay attention to absolute prices, funds, and market sentiment when going long [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The oilseed crushing volume and开机率 of coastal oil mills are estimated. The palm oil market may see a slight increase in inventory in August, and the soybean oil yield may be lower than last year [27][29]. - Investment advice: Palm oil has long - term allocation value, and soybean oil's far - month contracts also have long - term allocation value [30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's September sugar domestic sales quota is 2.35 million tons. The global sugar supply shortage in 2025/26 will narrow significantly, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August increased year - on - year [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the factory's quotation of imported sugar. Consider buying on dips for the Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract [36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India extends the cotton import tariff exemption until December 31. The drought - affected area of US cotton has expanded, and the weekly signing of US cotton exports has increased significantly [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term, and the market is not optimistic during the new cotton listing period in the fourth quarter [41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has increased, the auction of imported soybeans has a certain成交 rate, and the oil mill's开机率 remains high [42][43][44]. - Investment advice: If China resumes purchasing US soybeans, buy soybean meal on dips but don't chase the high, and keep an eye on Sino - US relations [45]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import market of steam coal is sluggish, and the price of steam coal will enter a weak consolidation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [46]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal will fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan due to supply and demand factors [47]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto adjusts its operation mode. The iron ore market will fluctuate, and the trend is not clear [48][49]. - Investment advice: The iron ore market will maintain a fluctuating trend [50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rizhao Steel acquires 4.66 million tons of steel production capacity. Guangzhou suspends the car "replacement and upgrade" subsidy. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [51][52]. - Investment advice: Consider a short - term callback approach for steel prices [53]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch has decreased, and the price difference with corn starch has slightly increased [54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of widening the price difference [55]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has declined [55]. - Investment advice: Stop losses for previous short positions and look for short - selling opportunities later [56]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The spot price of jujube is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The inventory of sample enterprises is high [57]. - Investment advice: Observe the market and focus on the weather in the production area and on - the - spot research [59]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Indonesia cancels a pricing regulation. The supply of alumina exceeds demand, and the price will fluctuate weakly [60]. - Investment advice: Observe the market [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony accelerates its diversification into the copper business. The copper market will be affected by macro factors and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [61][64]. - Investment advice: Buy copper on dips unilaterally and observe for arbitrage [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There is a photovoltaic component tender with a price limit. The spot price of polysilicon may remain firm, but the terminal demand is not optimistic [65][66]. - Investment advice: Trade polysilicon with a callback - buying approach and consider a 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage at around - 2000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan silicon plants may cut production if the price doesn't rise. The production and inventory of industrial silicon are affected by the resumption of production in Xinjiang [69][70]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of production in Xinjiang and trade within the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile aims to reach a lithium cooperation deal by 2026. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to strengthen in September due to supply and demand changes [71][72]. - Investment advice: Look for long - buying opportunities after inventory reduction and basis strengthening, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [73]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The开工率 of recycled lead in Inner Mongolia has declined significantly. The lead market's supply and demand will change from loose to tight, and the price may rise [74][75]. - Investment advice: Look for long - buying opportunities at low prices and consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [75]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc spread is in a discount. The zinc market will fluctuate, and the medium - term short - selling logic may be realized through the rise of LME zinc [76]. - Investment advice: Observe the market unilaterally and consider a medium - term positive arbitrage [76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA price fluctuates. The carbon market will be affected by various factors and will fluctuate narrowly [78]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short term [79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US crude oil production has increased in June, and the number of oil rigs has risen. The oil price will fluctuate within a range [79][80][81]. - Investment advice: The oil price will maintain a range - bound fluctuation [81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is stable. The spot price increase of caustic soda may be near the end, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward [82][83][85]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda futures price is expected to fluctuate downward [85]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp market shows a rebound sign. The pulp market is in a weak fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate weakly [86][87]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [87]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has declined slightly. The PVC market will fluctuate [88][89]. - Investment advice: The PVC futures price will fluctuate [89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, and the domestic price has decreased. The industry maintains a 20% production - cut target, and the demand is transitioning to the off - season [90][92]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the new production capacity in September and the demand change [92]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is weak. The supply pressure will continue, and the demand is not strong. The 01 contract of urea is expected to fluctuate within a range [93][94]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price will fluctuate within a range, and pay attention to the export to India [94]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is stable, and the price is flexible. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average [95]. - Investment advice: Sell soda ash at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market lacks a strong driving force and will fluctuate [98]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on the long - glass and short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [98]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo Port's semi - annual profit has increased. The container freight rate index shows different trends. The freight rate is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to the Red Sea situation [99][100][101]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the Red Sea situation [101].
中国8月官方制造业PMI录得49.4
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 00:45