锌周报：风险偏好频繁切换，锌价重心略下移-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc changed from rising to falling. Macroscopically, the market digested Powell's dovish speech, and the focus shifted to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The risk appetite declined, dragging down the prices of risk assets. However, the PCE data in July met expectations, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the US dollar declined. China's PMI in August improved slightly month - on - month but remained below the boom - bust line. Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates in September remained stable month - on - month, and those for imported ores continued to rise rapidly. Refinery maintenance in September will reduce the monthly supply of refined zinc by more than 8,000 tons, and the high import loss limits the import supplement, so the supply - side pressure eases. On the demand side, due to transportation control in the north, galvanizing enterprises have inventory backlogs and may reduce production or stop work. The consumption of die - casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide has not improved significantly. Social inventories are accumulating seasonally, but the accumulation is expected to end soon. Overseas, large traders are still in the process of picking up and transferring goods, and LME inventories continue to decline, providing support. Overall, the market risk preference switches frequently, and the macro situation is difficult to provide a trend - setting guide. The refinery maintenance eases the supply pressure, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in consumption, which limits the downside space of zinc prices. However, the continuous inventory accumulation also dampens the enthusiasm of bulls. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation pattern, waiting for the gradual improvement of the consumption side [3][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 22 to 29, the price of SHFE zinc decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc increased by 8.5 US dollars/ton to 2,814 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.87; the inventory of SHFE increased by 8,142 tons to 85,980 tons; the inventory of LME decreased by 11,575 tons to 56,500 tons; the social inventory decreased by 13,200 tons to 103,700 tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2510 failed to continue rising last week, with the center of gravity moving slightly lower, mainly dragged down by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political situation in France, and the continuous inventory accumulation in China. It finally closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.61%. LME zinc maintained a sideways oscillation under the influence of the cooling of market risk preference and the continuous decline of LME inventories, and finally closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3%. In the spot market, downstream buyers negotiated prices at low points during the week, but the purchasing sentiment weakened on Friday, and the spot quotation changed from a small premium to a small discount [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - In September, the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat month - on - month at 3,950 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 14.71 US dollars/dry ton to 70.68 US dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 47,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 246,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to June was 6.644 million tons, and the consumption was 6.597 million tons [11].