股指期货：震荡格局，间歇性上冲

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a rebound high of 3888.6 points on Tuesday but then pulled back. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the textile, coal, and banking sectors led the losses. The core driver of the market's upward movement was the continuous inflow of funds under the influence of positive risk appetite. However, regulatory cooling rumors during the week led to some risk - aversion among investors [2]. - The driving factors of the market still lie in internal and external variables. Domestically, it is necessary to focus on the policy's attitude towards preventing stock market risks at the current position. Overseas, pay attention to the adjustment of the US stock technology and chip sectors and its impact on the domestic market, as well as the impact of the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectations on the domestic market. If the internal and external situations are stable, the market is expected to show a slightly stronger pattern in the shock and may try to break through the 4000 - point mark. If internal and external fluctuations increase, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways at the current position [3]. - Key factors to watch include the domestic economic and policy trends and the Fed's policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains at 35% [9]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. Among them, the information and materials industries in the CSI 300 index had relatively large increases, while the energy and financial industries declined [11]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock - index futures contracts, and the IM contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures both rebounded [13][17][18]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 22, the TTM P/E ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.42 times, 13.97 times, 11.89 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [24][25]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - The chart shows the new - established equity - biased fund shares, the margin trading balance in the two markets, the capital interest - rate price, and the central bank's net investment situation [28]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IIH, IH, IC, and IM can refer to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend strategy: After adjustment, go long. It is expected that the core operating ranges of the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 contracts are 4371 - 4596 points, 2906 - 3040 points, 6787 - 7242 points, and 7109 - 7588 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5].