宝城期货煤焦早报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) are mainly "oscillating". The core logic for coking coal is that the increase in wait - and - see sentiment leads to its oscillating operation, and for coke, it is the stalemate between long and short positions resulting in range - bound oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, the recent decline in domestic production has been priced in the futures market, and imported coal has compensated for the production shortage. With a lack of new supply - side positive drivers in the short term, the futures market is in wide - range oscillations. Considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy, the callback space may be limited [5]. - For coke, due to the lack of new drivers in the "anti - involution" theme of coking coal, the market has entered the actual supply verification stage, causing the cost support to weaken and driving the futures main contract to oscillate within a range. Considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy, the subsequent supply side may have new positive factors, and the callback space is expected to be limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference | Variety | Contract | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 2601 | Oscillating | Oscillating (medium - term: bullish; intraday: bearish) | Oscillating | Oscillating | Wait - and - see sentiment increases, coking coal oscillates [1] | | Coke | 2601 | Oscillating | Oscillating (medium - term: bullish; intraday: bearish) | Oscillating | Oscillating | Stalemate between long and short positions, coke oscillates in a range [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Coking Coal (JM): Intraday view is oscillating bearish, medium - term view is oscillating bullish, and the reference view is oscillating. The core logic is that the decline in domestic production has been priced, imported coal compensates for the shortage, and there is a lack of new positive supply - side drivers in the short term, leading to wide - range oscillations. The callback space may be limited due to the "anti - involution" policy [5]. - Coke (J): Intraday view is oscillating bearish, medium - term view is oscillating bullish, and the reference view is oscillating. The core logic is that the lack of new drivers in the coking coal "anti - involution" theme weakens the cost support and drives the futures main contract to oscillate within a range. The callback space is expected to be limited due to the "anti - involution" policy [7].