宝城期货股指期货早报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, and the upward trend of stock index remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to maintain a loose and volatile trend. The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from policy - side favorable expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market [5]. - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is upward, supported by policy - side favorable expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: upward; intraday: strongly volatile; overall view: upward. The core logic is that the favorable policy expectations on the policy side provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, the stock indexes fluctuated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2830.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 170.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stock market is still at a high level, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still optimistic [5]. - The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from policy - side favorable expectations and loose capital - side liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the moderate recovery of the price index, and repair corporate profits. The recent decline in market interest rates, loose liquidity, and increased willingness of funds to allocate to the stock market are reflected in the significant increase in margin trading balance, non - bank deposits, and M1 growth rate [5]. - In the short - term, pay attention to changes in market sentiment, such as trading volume and margin trading volume. Be aware of the risk of technical adjustments due to profit - taking by profitable funds as some stocks have risen significantly [5].