五矿期货早报有色金属-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which may drive non - ferrous metal varieties including nickel to strengthen. Each metal has different supply - demand situations, and price trends vary accordingly [1][3][5][7][8][10][11][14][16][18][20] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.97% last week, and LME copper rose 0.99% to $9906/ton [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with SHFE inventory decreasing by 0.2 to 8.0 million tons, LME inventory increasing by 0.3 to 15.9 million tons, and COMEX inventory increasing by 0.6 to 25.2 million tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [1] - Market situation: The spot import window remained open, the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The LME market was at a discount, and the domestic spot had a higher premium. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises declined [1] - Price forecast: The price is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9780 - 10050/ton [1] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.46% to $2619/ton on Friday, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20725 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: The inventory of the three domestic regions decreased by 0.55 million tons to 45.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 0.15 million tons to 9.5 million tons [3] - Market situation: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic spot was at a discount. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement [3] - Price forecast: The price support is strong. If the inventory inflection point appears, the price will have stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3] Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.13% to 16883 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME lead 3S fell $2 to $1990/ton [5] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 6.52 million tons [5] - Market situation: The lead concentrate inventory decreased, the processing fee continued to decline. The production of primary smelters was high, and the finished product inventory increased. The raw materials of secondary smelters were in short supply, and some enterprises had maintenance. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly [5] - Price forecast: The price is expected to be strong due to the high expectation of Fed rate cuts and the narrowing supply [5] Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 22140 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose $19.5 to $2796.5/ton [7] - Inventory: The zinc concentrate entered the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase rapidly to 14.45 million tons [7] - Market situation: The supply of zinc concentrate increased, the smelting output continued to rise, and the downstream operating rate did not improve significantly [7] - Price forecast: There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation. The short - term decline space is limited, showing a low - level oscillation pattern [7] Tin - Price: The domestic tin price soared last week [8] - Supply: The supply of tin ore was in short supply. A large - scale tin smelter in Yunnan planned to have maintenance in September, and Indonesia's export was affected. The production of refined tin in September is expected to decline by 29.89% [8] - Demand: It was in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some demand, it had limited impact on the overall demand [8] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly to 10002 tons [8] - Price forecast: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating [8] Nickel - Nickel ore: The price remained stable. The supply in Indonesia was relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of the price was okay [10] - Nickel iron: The supply increase was limited due to the loss of domestic iron mills. The demand was supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September [10] - Intermediate products: The supply was tight, and the cost increased. The price is expected to be strong [10] - Price forecast: The short - term macro atmosphere is positive. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [11][12] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index fell 0.32% on Friday and 4.05% last week. The LC2511 contract price fell 1.23% on Friday and 2.25% last week [14] - Market situation: The market sentiment cooled down, and the supply - demand relationship was slowly repaired. The inventory decreased due to the decline in lithium mica supply [14] - Price forecast: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is expected to operate in the range of 74500 - 79900 yuan/ton [14] Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.95% to 3031 yuan/ton on August 29 [16] - Market situation: The supply of ore was disturbed, and the macro sentiment improved [16] - Price forecast: The short - term downward space is limited, and the oversupply situation cannot support continuous price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [16] Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract closed at 12815 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.27% [18] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.30 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.63% to 65.45 million tons [18] - Market situation: The downstream demand was insufficient, and the trading was mainly for on - demand replenishment. The demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract remained at 20350 yuan/ton [20] - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three domestic regions increased by 0.01 to 3.30 million tons [20] - Market situation: It was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost support was strong, and the market activity tended to increase [20] - Price forecast: The price may run at a high level [20]