镍周报：镍价区间震荡，警惕技术性回撤-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: During the reporting period, Trump removed Fed Governor Cook, and the market worried about the Fed's loss of independence. However, the Fed's current interest - rate cut expectations are in line with the market, with no obvious signs of acceleration, and commodity prices have limited reactions. Inflation data met expectations, the Fed sent dovish signals, and Waller's speech boosted interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry passed a new resolution to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations on Indonesia's tax revenue. The resource side maintains a loose expectation, with structural differences at home and abroad. Nickel ore prices in Indonesia and the Philippines are showing signs of decline, while domestic nickel ore is relatively tight, and upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, resulting in limited price drops. Ferronickel prices continue to rise, costs remain high, and overall profits are still under pressure. The popularity of nickel sulfate remains good, while the trading volume of pure nickel has declined [3]. - Outlook: Guided by macro expectations, nickel prices will first strengthen and then weaken, showing an overall oscillatory trend. There is no obvious improvement expectation in the industry. With the approaching parade, some northern steel mills have no obvious plans to increase production, and stainless - steel downstream consumption is sluggish. The cathode factory's production schedule in September is expected to increase month - on - month, which may support downstream purchasing. Supply remains relatively high, and the fundamental situation is expected to be stable. The upcoming release of manufacturing PMI and non - farm employment data may lead to price fluctuations. Technically, nickel prices are at the upper edge of the oscillatory range, and short - term correction risks should be watched out for [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of the Previous Week | Type | 2025/8/29 | 2025/8/25 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121,700 | 120,310 | 1,390 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,263 | 15,100 | 163 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 209,544 | 209,748 | - 204 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21,905 | 22,292 | - 387 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2,250 | 2,600 | - 350 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 500 | - 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 951 | 936 | 15 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 88.0 | 88.3 | - 0.37 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Macro: US economic data such as initial jobless claims, GDP, and PCE price index were released. Market concerns about the Fed's independence did not spread to the entire commodity field, and the macro - level had limited impact on nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the upcoming manufacturing PMI and employment data [6]. - Nickel Ore: Overseas nickel ore prices are showing signs of decline, while domestic nickel ore is relatively tight. High - grade nickel ore is in short supply, supporting domestic nickel ore prices. Indonesia's new resolution implies looser price control [7]. - Pure Nickel: In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly. Domestic electrolytic nickel exports and imports increased year - on - year. The market believes that the upside space of nickel prices is limited, and price rebounds have a significant inhibitory effect on downstream purchasing [8]. - Ferronickel: High - nickel pig iron prices rose. In July, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly month - on - month, while imports increased significantly year - on - year. Inventory remains at a high level. Most RKEF processes still face strong cost pressure, and ferronickel prices may be under pressure [8][9]. - Nickel Sulfate: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices rose. In July, production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The supply of nickel salts is tight, and cathode factory production schedules are increasing month - on - month, driving up the price of nickel sulfate. However, downstream purchasing is cautious [10]. - New Energy: From August 1 - 24, new - energy vehicle retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Although the growth rate has declined, the absolute sales volume is strong. With the restart of new - energy vehicle replacement subsidy activities, consumption resilience is expected to remain, but the intensity of demand stimulation is expected to be moderate [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel decreased compared with the previous period, and the inventory of the two major global exchanges also decreased [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia's ESDM added a rule that if the contract price is lower than the base price, taxes will be calculated based on the base price [13]. - A French company plans to produce 42 million tons of nickel ore in Indonesia this year for a joint - venture project [13]. - An Indonesian sovereign wealth fund and a Chinese company will jointly invest in developing a nickel processing center in Indonesia [13]. - Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining in forest areas starting from September 1 [13]. - An Indonesian sovereign wealth fund and a Chinese company will cooperate in a nickel project worth about $1.42 billion [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, domestic - to - foreign nickel ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17].