山金期货原油日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing pressure as OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and the US oil demand may enter a seasonally weak phase in September. Geopolitical issues such as the Iran nuclear problem and the Russia-Ukraine situation remain uncertain, and the implementation of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act may trigger additional information. The short - term oil price may fluctuate, and the trading range is [63, 65]. Traders can follow up after the range is broken, and those betting on event - driven opportunities can choose to ambush option positions [2]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 29, the price of Sc crude oil futures was 485.20 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and down 8.40 yuan (-1.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.31 dollars (-0.48%) from the previous day and up 0.24 dollars (0.38%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.46 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars (-0.28%) from the previous day and down 0.33 dollars (-0.49%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was 4.30 dollars/barrel, up 0.83 dollars (24.08%) from the previous day and down 1.14 dollars (-20.95%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was 0.85 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (529.37%) from the previous day and down 0.57 dollars (-40.12%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was 3.45 dollars/barrel, up 3.32 dollars (2457.01%) from the previous day and up 2.03 dollars (143.26%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C2 spread was - 8.20 yuan/barrel, up 0.50 yuan (5.75%) from the previous day and down 1.60 yuan (24.24%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc_C1 - C6 spread was - 4.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (42.17%) from the previous day and down 5.00 yuan (-2500.00%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C13 spread was 0.90 yuan/barrel, up 3.10 yuan (140.91%) from the previous day and down 5.60 yuan (-86.15%) from the previous week [2]. - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 70.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.97 dollars (1.39%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (0.86%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 1.66 dollars (2.39%) from the previous day and down 0.10 dollars (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - Oman crude oil was at 71.22 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (1.01%) from the previous day and up 0.47 dollars (0.66%) from the previous week. Dubai crude oil was at 71.15 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.05%) from the previous day and up 0.40 dollars (0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO crude oil was at 65.06 dollars/barrel, up 0.92 dollars (1.43%) from the previous day and up 0.18 dollars (0.28%) from the previous week. The OPEC basket of crude oil's premium was 3.12 dollars/barrel, up 1.25 dollars (66.84%) from the previous day and up 0.16 dollars (5.41%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent DTD premium was 3.72 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (30.07%) from the previous day and down 3.86 dollars (-2757.14%) from the previous week. The Oman premium was 3.76 dollars/barrel, up 4.66 dollars (517.78%) from the previous day and down 5.77 dollars (-287.06%) from the previous week [2]. - The Dubai premium was 3.69 dollars/barrel, up 4.91 dollars (402.46%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (19.42%) from the previous week. The ESPO premium was - 2.40 dollars/barrel, down 0.21 dollars (-9.59%) from the previous day and down 16.01 dollars (-117.63%) from the previous week [2]. - Diesel in East China was at 6711.18 yuan/ton, down 4.73 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous day and down 8.45 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 7773.36 yuan/ton, down 0.18 yuan (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 12.09 yuan (-0.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 13.831784, down 0.11 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.22 (1.60%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 16.020947, down 0.12 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up 0.25 (1.57%) from the previous week [2]. - The difference between diesel and gasoline in East China was - 1062.18 yuan/ton, down 4.55 yuan (0.43%) from the previous day and up 3.64 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous week. The total Sc warehouse receipts were 572.10 million barrels, up 95.40 million barrels (20.01%) from the previous week [2]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve was 404.20 million barrels, up 0.78 million barrels (0.19%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 418.29 million barrels, down 2.39 million barrels (-0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - Cushing crude oil in the US was 22.63 million barrels, down 0.84 million barrels (-3.57%) from the previous week. Gasoline was 222.33 million barrels, down 1.24 million barrels (-0.55%) from the previous week. Distillate oil was 114.24 million barrels, down 1.79 million barrels (-1.54%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position was 10.95 million contracts, down 1.07 million contracts (-8.93%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 13.09 million contracts, up 0.97 million contracts (-6.89%) from the previous week. The non - reported net position was 2.14 million contracts, up 0.11 million contracts (5.18%) from the previous week [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 90%. Sino - US tariffs are postponed, and there may be significant differences between the two countries. The US may sanction China due to the Russian oil issue. The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump has come into effect, which may have a progressive and spill - over impact on the market [2]. - The E3 group may restart UN sanctions on Iran, and the situation around Iran may heat up. The Russia - Ukraine issue is progressing slowly, but there is an expectation of reaching an agreement. Pay attention to Trump's attitude and Putin's participation in the SCO Summit and the September 3 parade, which may bring new information [2]. Supply and Demand - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. It may evaluate the withdrawal of the second - batch 1.66 million barrels per day production cut in December (not confirmed, and the September OPEC+ meeting is likely to suspend production increase). Saudi Arabia may lower the crude oil price for Asian buyers in October to cope with sufficient supply and weak demand. India may continue to buy Russian oil [2]. Industry News - Affected by the US Labor Day holiday, US stocks will be closed on September 1. CME's precious metals and US oil contract trading will end at 02:30 on September 2, and stock index futures contract trading will end at 01:00 on September 2. ICE's Brent crude oil futures contract trading will end at 01:30 on September 2 [3]. - The CEO of Rosneft expects the global oil market supply surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and will drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4]. - China has become the world's first country to achieve large - scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil, with a cumulative production of over 5 million tons. The second - phase project of the Luda 5 - 2 North Oilfield has contributed over 100,000 tons of thermal recovery production, and the newly put - into - operation Kenli 10 - 2 Oilfield project has added over 14 million tons of heavy oil reserves [4]. - Hedge funds have reduced their bullish positions on US crude oil to the lowest level in about 18 years due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 contracts to 24,225 contracts, the lowest since January 2007 [4]. - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 29 was 412, up from 411 in the previous week. The total number of natural gas rigs was 119, down from 122 in the previous week [6]. - Iran's UN envoy said Iran is committed to diplomacy but will not negotiate under threat or coercion. It supports a short - term, unconditional technical extension of the nuclear agreement resolution [6]. - German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron called for secondary sanctions against Russia. They will promote sanctions against "third - country companies supporting the Russian war" [6]. - An executive of India's ONGC said that as long as the price is right, ONGC's refineries will continue to purchase Russian oil, and the government has not issued any advice on buying Russian oil [7]. - A Reuters survey shows that due to the increase in production of major oil - producing countries and the suppression of demand growth by US tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $67.65 per barrel, and the average price of US crude oil is expected to be $64.65 per barrel [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 5.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6% [7]. - European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn refuted the view that interest rates cannot be cut again in the next few months. He said inflation risks are currently "tilted to the downside", and the US trade agreement may help reduce uncertainty, but a 15% tariff on most European exports by the US may slow down the eurozone's economic growth [8]. - In addition to Cook, who is in a lawsuit with Trump, the Fed governors include Powell, Jefferson, and Barr appointed by the Biden administration, who are on the same side as Powell. Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump in his first term, voted in favor of a rate cut in July. Trump has nominated Stephen Milan to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's resignation, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Milan next Thursday [9]. - The Fed has finalized the new capital levels of the largest US banks after the June stress test. Morgan Stanley is seeking a re - evaluation of its upcoming capital level, and the Fed will announce the decision by the end of September [10]