THDB(SH:600867) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-09-01 01:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tonghua Dongbao is maintained at "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company is accelerating the overseas commercialization of multiple products, leveraging stable product quality and a diverse product portfolio to expand into international markets. Strategic partnerships have been established, including a collaboration with Jianyou Co. to enter the U.S. insulin market. The company has also received approvals for its insulin products in various countries [7] - The company is actively innovating and transforming its product offerings. The GLP-1 product, Liraglutide, has been launched domestically, and the company is working with Sinovac to expedite its registration in 17 emerging markets. Additionally, two innovative GLP-1 drugs are in clinical trials, showing promising results [7] - Financial projections indicate that the company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.5 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.31 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 446 million, 721 million, and 874 million yuan. The projected PE ratios are 36.9, 22.8, and 18.8 for the same years [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,075 million yuan, with a significant decline expected in 2024 to 2,010 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 2,500 million yuan in 2025. The revenue growth rates are forecasted at 10.7% for 2023, -34.7% for 2024, and 24.4% for 2025 [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,168 million yuan, with a loss of 43 million yuan anticipated in 2024, and a return to profitability with 446 million yuan in 2025. The net profit growth rates are -26.2% for 2023 and -103.7% for 2024, with a projected recovery of 61.7% in 2025 [6][8] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.59 yuan in 2023, dropping to -0.02 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 0.23 yuan in 2025 [6][8]