中原期货策略周报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed strong performance on August 28, with over 2800 stocks rising and the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. The market is in a bullish trend in the medium term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable due to the accumulation of risks and the need to digest profit-taking chips. [2][3] - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation; coking coal and coke may fluctuate repeatedly; urea may continue to consolidate within a certain range; steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom; egg futures can be shorted on rebounds; live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations; and cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term but bullish in the medium to long term. [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Options - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes strengthened collectively. The trading volume of A-shares exceeded 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching 3.0004 trillion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with semiconductor, communication equipment, and other sectors leading the gains, while automobile service, real estate service, and brewing industries declined. [2] - The IF weighted index of CSI 300 stock index futures increased in volume and price, with the basis of the current-month contract widening and the basis of the next-month contract narrowing. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of two 300ETF options both increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IH weighted index of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased in position and increased in volume. The current-month contract changed to a discount to the underlying, and the next-month contract changed to a premium to the current-month contract. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of CFFEX SSE 50 stock index options decreased, while those of Huaxia 50ETF increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IM weighted index of CSI 1000 stock index futures increased in position and volume. The basis of the current-month contract and the next-month contract both widened, the trading volume PCR increased, the option trading volume PCR decreased but remained above 1.09, and the weighted implied volatility rose. The option MO holding volume reached a new high since listing. [2] - Trend investors are advised to focus on the strength and weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors are advised to go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls. [2] Stock Index - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes closed higher. Concept sectors such as copper cable high-speed connection, CPO, lithography machine, and storage chips were active, while grain concept, animal vaccine, and weight-loss drug sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82%. [3] - On Thursday, most European and American stock markets closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes hitting new closing highs. Technology stocks mostly rose, and the US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, exceeding expectations, which boosted market sentiment. [3] - The market showed a rebound and repair trend on Thursday. The short-term fluctuations of the market are due to the accumulation of risks after the rapid rise of the index and the need to digest profit-taking chips, but the overall strong pattern remains unchanged. [3] - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for previous profit-taking positions and use the 10-day moving average as the mid-term trend watershed. [3] Aluminum - The market continues to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September. Fundamentally, due to the release of supply increments and the off-season of consumption, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong. Aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The weekly average daily output of raw coal was 188,600 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the raw coal inventory was 472,600 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The average daily output of clean coal was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 283,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. [4] - Due to stricter safety inspections in mines and the supply contraction of downstream coke enterprises and steel mills, the short-term raw material support still exists, and coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate repeatedly. [4] Urea - The domestic urea spot market price remained stable over the weekend, with the mainstream ex-factory quotation at around 1,670 - 1,680 yuan/ton. Recently, many urea enterprises have overhauled their equipment, resulting in a significant decrease in daily output, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient. [4] - Affected by the weak downstream demand, the inventory of upstream urea enterprises continued to accumulate. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, but the downstream pick-up improved gradually. The UR2601 contract may continue to consolidate within the range of 1,700 - 1,820 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the Indian tender opening. [4] Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - The five major steel products continued to accumulate inventory in the off-season. Rebar production and demand both increased, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly faster. The total inventory increase slowed down, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase, indicating an accelerated transfer from factory inventory to social inventory. Terminal procurement was relatively cautious due to the off-season. [4] - Hot-rolled coil production and demand both decreased slightly, and the total inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall inventory accumulation pressure was not large, with the factory inventory at a historical low and the social inventory lower than the same period last year. The spot market trading was weak over the weekend, and the quotation was partially reduced by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis was at a high level, and the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly by 0.1 to 49.4%. Steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [4] Eggs - The national egg spot price fell steadily last week and stabilized again over the weekend. The current spot price at the benchmark location is 2.6 yuan/jin, a weekly decline of 0.08 yuan/jin. After the callback in the north, the price tried to rise slightly but failed, and the high-price area in the south began to decline. The出库 of cold storage eggs suppressed the market, and the supply of large-sized eggs was short, while the supply of medium and small-sized eggs was relatively sufficient. The terminal's acceptance of the rapid rise in egg prices was limited, and the sales slowed down. It is expected that the spot price is unlikely to fall significantly further due to the support of Mid-Autumn Festival stocking. Egg futures can be shorted on rebounds. [4] Live Pigs - The live pig spot price remained stable last week, with the national average price at 14.00 yuan/kg. The overall supply is sufficient, and the demand is constantly recovering, so the price is stable. Although the存栏 of medium and large pigs has decreased, the actual supply is still sufficient. With the decrease of high-temperature weather, the demand has rebounded, and the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises has increased, which further supports the price. The futures market showed general performance, maintaining a volatile trend, and the current discount is slight, with limited room for a deep decline. The near-term contract reflects the reality of oversupply, while the far-term contract reflects the expectation of capacity reduction. Live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations, with a weak near-term and a strong far-term, and it is advisable to conduct reverse arbitrage. [5] Cotton - In the previous trading session, ICE cotton rebounded significantly, with the December contract closing at 67.3 cents/pound, up 62 points, or 0.93%. Zhengzhou cotton rose sharply on Friday. Internationally, India extended the duty-free period for cotton imports until December 31, 2025, which boosted market sentiment. However, currently, US cotton exports to India only account for about 1.5% of its total exports, so the overall positive impact is limited. [5] - The main drivers of Zhengzhou cotton's rise are the rise of ICE cotton, the tight supply of cotton commercial inventory as of August 22, and the market's expectation of the start of orders during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, from the fundamental perspective, the cotton destocking speed and the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have not improved significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and the increase in downstream cotton yarn prices is limited, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term, with an expected decline next week, and the focus is on the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, but it may be bullish in the medium to long term. [5]