Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on alumina [2] Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Category | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3138 | 3036 | -102 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3263 | 3222 | -41 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 134 | 237 | 103 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 370 | 362 | -8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -24.60 | 0.10 | 24.7 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 77746 | 97829 | 20083 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] Market Outlook - Last week, both domestic and imported ores were relatively stable. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments. Currently, the bauxite inventory at domestic ports is sufficient, and the supply of imported ore in the short term is expected to be stable [2][7] - On the supply side, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South has not resumed, and new roasting capacity entered maintenance last week, with a slight decline in the operating capacity [2][7] - On the consumption side, when the alumina price declined, electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased their spot replenishment purchases slightly, but due to the stable operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the increase in demand was limited [2][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Industry News - According to Aladdin (ALD) research, the freight rate of Cape-type ships on the Guinea-China route increased significantly this week, rising by 1.5 US dollars/ton to 25 US dollars/ton [8] - The Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province recently released the review result announcement of the preliminary design of the 300,000-ton/year underground mining expansion project of Loufan Bauxite Mine of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, which aims to increase the current production scale from 240,000 tons/year to 300,000 tons/year [8] - On August 22, 2025, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), would completely terminate all activities in Guinea due to the illegal expropriation of its assets by the Republic of Guinea [8] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month-to-month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost and profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][13][15][18][20][23]
供应压力仍存，氧化铝偏空
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-01 01:54