反内卷情绪降温，工业硅震荡走弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were the cooling of domestic anti - involution sentiment, the decline of the polysilicon futures price after a peak, and the negative growth of China's industrial enterprise profit growth rate again. The supply side remained in passive contraction, while the demand side showed mixed trends. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the spot market weakened gradually [2][6][10]. - Overall, Sino - US trade may start a new round of talks. The cooling of anti - involution sentiment and the negative profit growth of industrial enterprises in July dragged down the sentiment of the industrial product market. Technically, there was strong resistance at the 9000 level on the futures price chart, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong after the cooling of anti - involution sentiment. It was expected that the futures price would have a risk of further correction in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | Price on Aug 29 | Price on Aug 22 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8390.00 | 8745.00 | - 355.00 | - 4.06% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9050.00 | 9250.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.16% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 9050.00 | - 100.00 | - 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9600.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.08% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10550.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.37% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10750.00 | 10750.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 47.00 | 46.00 | 1.00 | 2.17% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.1 | 54.3 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | Ten thousand tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and from January to July, the cumulative decline was 1.7%. However, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries grew rapidly, with a significant leading role. In July, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: As of August 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon remained at 293, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 36.8%. In terms of demand, polysilicon trading was frequent at the end of August, with increased trading volume and significantly reduced inventory. Due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule in September would continue to decline. Small - scale silicon wafer enterprises sold goods at low prices to reduce inventory pressure, while large - scale enterprises increased their demand for silicon material procurement. Photovoltaic cells followed the raw material price and rose slightly. The market preference for large - size and high - efficiency battery cells increased, and the supply of relevant enterprises was tight, but the terminal demand did not improve significantly. The component price increased slightly, with continuous strengthening cost support, but still needed to compete for downstream market orders to maintain production, and the competition pattern was fierce. The distributed projects faced the dilemma of declining yields, and it was expected that the photovoltaic terminal market would face the dilemma of shrinking demand under the influence of anti - involution policies, which would drag down the industrial silicon futures price and limit its rebound space [8]. - Inventory aspect: As of August 29, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. As of August 22, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,453 lots, totaling 252,000 tons. After the exchange issued a new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored was increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory had remained at around 50,000 tons recently because the production reduction expectations of enterprises were continuously strengthened under the call of the photovoltaic industry to actively respond to the national anti - involution policy [9]. Industry News - On August 25, the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission released an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Plan (Trial) for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Guizhou Province". The document clarified the electricity volume scale, mechanism electricity price, and implementation period of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism [11]. - The photovoltaic enterprises' plan to list in Hong Kong reached a small peak this month. After Yingfa Ruineng, the third - largest battery cell manufacturer, announced on August 20 that it had submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, another leading company in the photovoltaic and energy storage field, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), also announced today that it was planning to issue H - shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its semi - annual report showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 43.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 7.735 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 55.97%. The increase in overseas market revenue was considered an important reason for the profit growth. During the reporting period, the company achieved an overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China) of 25.379 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.32%, accounting for 58.30% of the total revenue. In the same period of the previous year, the overseas market revenue accounted for 43.44%. During the reporting period, the global demand for photovoltaic and energy storage markets continued to grow steadily. According to third - party data, the global newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 310 GWac, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the major global photovoltaic markets maintained a growth trend, with emerging markets performing prominently. In terms of energy storage, driven by factors such as the further increase in the global renewable energy penetration rate, continuous cost reduction, and gradual improvement of the revenue mechanism, the global energy storage demand continued to maintain a high - growth trend. According to third - party data, the global lithium - ion energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68% [12].