钢材周报：供需双弱，钢价震荡向下-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai government has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents, which boosts the sentiment of the black industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy, thus boosting the sentiment of the black industry [3][6]. - Last week, the production, apparent demand, and inventory of the five major steel products all increased month - on - month. The apparent demand for rebar was still weak despite a low - level recovery, and the inventory increased but the absolute value was not large. The hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern production restrictions. The spot market was weak, and the futures price maintained a weak and volatile trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3160 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a rise rate of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 17,417,436 lots, and a total open interest of 2,897,345 lots [4]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3346 yuan/ton, a fall of 43 yuan, a fall rate of - 1.27%, a total trading volume of 5,457,540 lots, and a total open interest of 1,454,760 lots [4]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 787.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.5 yuan, a rise rate of 0.06%, a total trading volume of 1,844,920 lots, and a total open interest of 410,009 lots [4]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1151.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 64.5 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.31%, a total trading volume of 17,695,850 lots, and a total open interest of 764,344 lots [4]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1643.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 93.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.36%, a total trading volume of 344,282 lots, and a total open interest of 51,526 lots [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. Stimulated by policy benefits such as the relaxation of the Shanghai property market, the market first rose and then fell. Due to the weak fundamentals, steel prices were slightly weak. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3000 (- 20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3380 (- 20) yuan/ton [6]. - In terms of macro - aspects, Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" [6]. - In terms of industry, last week, rebar production was 2210000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons month - on - month; apparent demand was 2040000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons; factory inventory was 1700000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4540000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons; and total inventory was 6230000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3250000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; factory inventory was 800000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; social inventory was 2860000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons; total inventory was 3650000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; and apparent demand was 3210000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [7]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents [8][9]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, including 53.83 billion yuan of general bonds and 277.76 billion yuan of special bonds [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel products, including futures and monthly spread trends, basis trends, spot regional price difference trends, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [11][12][13] etc.