新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-1）-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillatory and weak [2] - Glass: Oscillatory and weak [2] - CSI 50: Upward [2] - CSI 300: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [3] - Gold: Oscillatory and strong [3] - Silver: Oscillatory and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [7] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and strong [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Reverse spread [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which affects the raw material market. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high - level oscillatory adjustment. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the market is in high - level oscillation. Rebar is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to show counter - seasonal performance [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and the market as a whole rebounds. It is recommended to increase risk appetite and the long positions of stock index futures. The bond market is affected by market interest rate fluctuations, and Treasury bond bulls should hold light positions. The gold market is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics, and is expected to be oscillatory and strong [2][3]. - The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate. The log market has limited supply pressure in the short term, and prices are expected to be range - bound oscillatory. The oil and meal market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and weather, with oil prices oscillating and meal prices rebounding [6]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as supply and demand structure and weight reduction strategies. The price is expected to rise slightly. The rubber market has positive fundamentals, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and strong. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets in the polyester industry are affected by factors such as production, cost, and demand, showing different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Policy: The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, boosting raw material sentiment [2]. - Supply and demand: The global iron ore shipment decreases slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port throughput. The terminal demand is weak, and the blast furnace hot metal output decreases slightly. The steel mills' profit ratio drops from a high level, and the probability of negative feedback is low [2]. - Price trend: The short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high - level oscillatory adjustment [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Supply: Upstream mines are still increasing production, and the import volume is also increasing, with the total supply of coking coal rising [2]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons this week, and the coking coal demand reaches a new low since the second quarter [2]. - Price trend: The fundamentals are weakening, and the market is in high - level oscillation. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed to cause a shortage in the spot market [2]. Rebar - Supply: The supply will remain relatively high as the policy does not restrict steel production [2]. - Demand: The building material demand rebounds slightly, but the overall demand is difficult to show counter - seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [2]. - Price trend: The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the futures price breaks below the 60 - day line and continues to run weakly [2]. Glass - Supply and demand: The market sentiment cools down, the downstream is in the stage of digesting inventory, and the restocking demand weakens. The short - term supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement [2]. - Cost: Frequent accidents in the coal supply end may cause fluctuations in cost expectations [2]. - Price trend: The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short - term spot is weak, and the disk price focuses on the 60 - day line support [2]. Stock Index Futures/Options - Market performance: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.74%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.47%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.11% [2]. - Industry trends: Funds flow into the electric power grid and automobile sectors, and flow out of the aviation and shipping sectors. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August all increased month - on - month [2][3]. - Investment advice: The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and the long positions of stock index futures [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market factors: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreases by 1bp, FR007 decreases by 5bps, and SHIBOR3M remains flat. The central bank conducts a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 421.7 billion yuan [3]. - Price trend: Affected by market interest rate fluctuations, Treasury bond bulls should hold light positions [3]. Gold - Pricing factors: The pricing mechanism is shifting from real interest rate - centered to central bank gold - buying - centered. It is affected by currency, finance, geopolitics, and other factors [3]. - Market data: The US non - farm payroll data shows a weak labor market, the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%, and the inflation data slows down [3]. - Price trend: The logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong [3]. Pulp - Supply and demand: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The paper mills' inventory pressure is large, and the acceptance of high - price pulp is low. The demand improvement expectation needs to be verified [6]. - Price trend: The current price is at a key point, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. Logs - Supply: The arrival volume is expected to remain low in August, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost - side support is strengthening [6]. - Demand: The processing plants' willingness to stock up increases, and the daily average outbound volume is relatively strong [6]. - Price trend: The spot market price is stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound oscillatory [6]. Oil and Meal - Supply: The supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, but the soybean meal production increases, and the port inventory remains at a high level [6]. - Demand: The demand for biodiesel and high - end oilseeds increases, and the domestic demand for oil and meal is affected by factors such as consumption and production [6]. - Price trend: The oil prices oscillate, and the meal prices rebound, with the price increase of meal limited by the production increase expectation [6]. Live Pigs - Supply: The average transaction weight of live pigs continues to decline slightly, and the supply of large pigs is tight [7]. - Demand: The opening rate of key slaughtering enterprises increases slightly, and the school - opening procurement demand is expected to increase [7]. - Price trend: The price is expected to rise slightly, with cost support at the bottom [7]. Rubber - Supply: The raw material supply in Yunnan and Hainan is affected by weather, and the raw material prices in Thailand and Vietnam are rising [9]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreases slightly, and that of all - steel tires increases slightly [9]. - Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao Port decreases, and the inventory is expected to further decline [9]. - Price trend: The price is expected to be oscillatory and strong, but the early - September domestic parade may affect downstream operations [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: The oil price is under pressure, the PTA load weakens, and the polyester load rebounds. The short - term supply - demand pressure is not large, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - PTA: The cost - side support is general, the supply decreases, the downstream load rebounds, and the price follows the cost [9]. - MEG: The port inventory may continue to decline, the supply pressure increases, and the mid - term supply - demand is in a wide balance. The low inventory supports the price [9]. - PR: The demand is for rigid restocking at low prices, and the market is weak under the supply - demand game [9]. - PF: The self - supply and demand of polyester staple fiber is weak, but it may be strong under the background of PTA supply reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate [9].