Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong on that day, closing at 4496.76, a rise of 32.98 [1][2]. - The weighted index of coke trended weakly on September 29, closing at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly consolidated, closing at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - The price of US sugar oscillated slightly lower on September 29. Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting after a large short - term decline. The supply gap of sugar in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly [5]. - The rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower on September 29 due to the decline in crude oil prices [6]. - The soybean meal futures price may continue to oscillate and adjust, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The focus is on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [7]. - The live pig futures price may run weakly and oscillate. The focus is on the slaughter rhythm and market demand [8]. - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. - The iron ore futures price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. - The asphalt futures price will oscillate in the short term [10]. - The steel price will be under pressure and show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the performance of peak - season demand [12]. - The alumina industry is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has positive expectations, with supply increasing slightly and demand gradually recovering [13]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2890.13, up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4496.76 on September 29, a rise of 32.98 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 29, the weighted index of coke closed at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises proposed the eighth round of price increase. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by end - of - month production restrictions. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines had production disruptions, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly. The downstream demand will be restricted by end - of - month production restrictions [5]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3620000 tons. The supply gap in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly to 231000 tons from 4.88 million tons this year [5]. Rubber - On September 29, the rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower due to the decline in crude oil prices. As of August 29, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [6]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean futures price rose on August 29, while the domestic soybean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The domestic supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The price may continue to oscillate and adjust [7]. Live Pig - On August 29, the live pig futures price oscillated weakly. The demand showed signs of slow recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year was still large [8]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level. The domestic supply of copper concentrates is relatively tight, and the demand is expected to be good in the peak season. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. Iron Ore - On August 29, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.77% and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On August 29, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.17% and a closing price of 3507 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. Steel - The steel price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, but the cost increase may limit the downward space. It will show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the peak - season demand [12]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite will gradually decrease, and the domestic supply of alumina may increase slightly. The demand is stable, and the industry is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly, and the demand will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season. The industry has positive expectations [13].
国新国证期货早报-20250901
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 01:54