金信期货正常回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the A-share market and expects the Shanghai Composite Index to reach the 4200 - 4300 point range in 2025 [2][26] Core Viewpoints - The recent correction of the Shanghai Composite Index is a normal adjustment in a bull market, and the bull market is still ongoing based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economy, policy, funds, and technical patterns [2][3] - The "six factors" of economic recovery, loose monetary policy, capital flow, policy support, favorable international environment, and technical breakthroughs jointly form the basis for the strong rise of the A - share market [26] Summary by Related Factors Macroeconomic Factor - Since 2025, a series of growth - stabilizing policies have shown continuous effects, and the macro - economic recovery has been further consolidated. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, and key economic indicators such as industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment have shown a steady upward trend, providing fundamental support for the stock market [4] Monetary Policy Factor - The current monetary policy remains moderately loose. The central bank has maintained reasonable and sufficient market liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and various structural tools, driving the market interest rate center to decline continuously. This makes fixed - income assets less attractive and equity assets more appealing, leading to a large - scale transfer of funds to the stock market [10] Capital Flow Factor - In June 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 16.2 trillion yuan. In the context of an "asset shortage" in the financial market, the decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits in July and the recent high - volume trading in the stock market indicate the "movement" of household deposits [13] - In July, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a 19% month - on - month increase and a 71% year - on - year increase compared with June. The margin trading balance has steadily increased, and the issuance of public funds has picked up, indicating that market risk preference has shifted from conservative to aggressive, bringing continuous incremental funds to the market [16] Policy Factor - The top - level strategic goal of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence" has been implemented, and the regulatory authorities have introduced a series of measures to improve the capital market ecosystem, which is expected to continuously increase the valuation center and investor confidence [19] International Environment Factor - The Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread, weakening the attractiveness of US dollar assets. The stable and strong RMB exchange rate has increased the cost - effectiveness of RMB assets [21] - Global funds are re - evaluating the Chinese market with relatively low valuations and leading economic recovery, and northbound funds have shown a trend of net inflow, becoming an important driving force for the market [21] Technical Analysis Factor - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the key resistance level of 3800 points with heavy volume, and multiple major moving averages are in a bullish arrangement and diverging upwards, providing strong technical support for the index to rise. The current market trading is active, with good volume - price coordination, and the upward trend is expected to continue, targeting the 4200 - 4300 point range [23]