中辉有色观点-20250901

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended [1] - Silver: Long position recommended [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound and then decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in September [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Overall, the report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, suggesting different investment strategies based on their respective fundamentals, market conditions, and macro - economic factors. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise due to interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks; copper is favored in the long - term due to supply shortages and increasing demand; while zinc is considered a short - position option as supply increases and demand weakens [1][3][7]. Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold price center has shifted upwards, and silver has broken through historical highs [2] - Basic Logic: US inflation has rebounded (July core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year), the Fed may cut interest rates, and there are geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, it's difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long term, it may enter a long - bull market [3] - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, there is support around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 803. For silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakthrough. In the long run, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4] Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper has strengthened in a volatile manner [6] - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and there are contradictions between short - term inventory accumulation and long - term demand growth [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions, and new investors can buy on dips. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 78,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of 9,800 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [10] - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Demand is weak during the off - season, and domestic inventory has increased [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see, and in the long term, sell on rallies. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum price rebound is under pressure, and alumina is relatively weak [13] - Industrial Logic: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are strong. Aluminum production has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. Alumina supply is expected to be loose in the short term [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit and wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprises' operating rates. The main operating range is 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [15] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is also under pressure [17] - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro sentiment has weakened. The nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with refined nickel supply in surplus and nickel sulfate in short supply. Stainless steel inventory decline has slowed down, and the off - season pressure remains [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [19] Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: The main contract LC2511 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, with the closing gain narrowing [21] - Industrial Logic: A mine in Jiangxi has renewed its mining license, but the situation of other mines is uncertain. Production is stable, demand is picking up, and total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for the price to stabilize in the range of 76,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton [23]