中辉期货热卷早报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Coking Coal: Bearish [1] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Short-term technical rebound, cautious bullish [1] Core Views - The introduction of the steel industry's stable growth plan has limited overall positive effects. The market may face a downward trend in the medium term due to factors such as supply-demand imbalances and the fading of the "anti-involution" atmosphere [1][4][5]. - For iron ore, with the decline in hot metal production, the end of steel mills' replenishment, and port inventory accumulation, the fundamentals are moderately weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - Coke has started the first round of spot price cuts, and there is a significant game between steel and coke enterprises. With the influence of the military parade and the fading of the "anti-involution" atmosphere, there is a risk of a medium-term correction [1][10]. - Coking coal production is recovering slowly due to enhanced safety inspections during the military parade. The downstream replenishment speed has slowed down, and the market sentiment has weakened. The stable growth policy for the steel industry has limited positive effects on the raw material end, and there is a downward correction risk in the medium term [1][14]. - For ferromanganese, production continues to increase with a slowing growth rate, demand has slightly increased, and enterprise inventory has decreased. For ferrosilicon, production has decreased, demand has slightly increased, and enterprise inventory has increased. Both may have short-term technical rebounds [1][17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: Although blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, hot metal production is stable at a high level. Demand has rebounded month-on-month but is still lower than production, leading to inventory increases and a looser supply-demand balance. There is a risk of continued downward movement after policy implementation [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month-on-month, and inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the military parade is limited, and there is a general trend of looser supply and demand. There is a risk of a medium-term decline [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Hot metal production has decreased, steel mills have completed replenishment, and port inventory has accumulated. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased. The fundamentals are moderately weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. Coke - Spot prices have started the first round of cuts, and there is a significant game between steel and coke enterprises. Some coke enterprises in certain regions have production restriction policies due to the military parade, resulting in a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level overall. There is a risk of a medium-term correction [1][10]. Coking Coal - Due to enhanced safety inspections during the military parade, coking coal production is recovering slowly. Although hot metal production remains at a high level, the downstream replenishment speed has slowed down, and the market sentiment has weakened. The stable growth policy for the steel industry has limited positive effects on the raw material end, and there is a downward correction risk in the medium term [1][14]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese: Weekly production continues to increase with a slowing growth rate, demand has slightly increased, and enterprise inventory has decreased by 0.7 tons to 14.9 tons. The current round of steel mill replenishment has ended, and attention should be paid to the new steel procurement trend at the end of the month. Manganese ore prices have not significantly declined, providing some support to the cost side [1][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Weekly production has decreased, demand has slightly increased, and enterprise inventory has increased by 830 tons to 6.29 tons [1][17].