Group 1: Coal and Steel - The daily coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.64 to 46.09 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.99%, a decrease of 1.18%. Coke inventory increased by 0.48 to 610.07 tons, and the available days increased by 0.02 to 10.78 days. Coking coal inventory decreased by 0.46 to 811.85 tons, and the available days increased by 0.18 to 13.25 days. Injection coal inventory decreased by 0.14 to 423.32 tons, and the available days increased by 0.08 to 12.37 days. Before the parade, coal mine production tightened, and coke production declined slightly under production restrictions in some areas. The short - term coal futures market is supported, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery after the parade [1]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year. The steel industry has policy support, but the inventory of rebar is accumulating. The decline space of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [4]. Group 2: Livestock - As of August 29, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.37 kg, a decrease of 0.01 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 30.18%, an increase of 0.04%. The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan per head, an increase of 4.66 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 7.85 yuan per head, an increase of 1.34 yuan per head. The price of piglets was 342.86 yuan per head, a decrease of 21.43 yuan per head. The price of live pigs rebounded slightly due to reduced supply from some scale enterprises and increased demand. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and for farmers to choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [2]. Group 3: Minerals - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9007.19 tons, a decrease of 58.28 tons from the previous period; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills was 296.10 tons, a decrease of 1.74 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.42 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous period. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly. The total supply is relatively stable, and the demand for iron ore is expected to recover after the parade [5]. Group 4: Oils and Fats - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in September at $954.71 per ton, higher than $910.91 in August. The export tax on crude palm oil will increase from $74 per ton in August to $124 per ton. Palm oil prices are expected to decline in the short term and operate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to the approaching consumption season [6]. Group 5: Chemicals - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 2225 yuan per ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.07% to 84.84%. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 7354 yuan per ton. The weekly LLDPE output decreased by 2.63% to 26.83 tons. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in China decreased to 1290 yuan per ton. The weekly soda ash output decreased by 6.78% to 71.91 tons. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. Group 6: Precious Metals - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, reaching a new high since February 2025. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence and the risk of stagflation in the US economy have increased the safe - haven property of gold. The mid - term trend of gold needs further observation [10]. Group 7: Energy - As of August 29, the number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 1 to 412. OPEC+ will maintain a large increase in production in September, and the demand for traditional fuels in the US is expected to weaken. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][12]. - The cumulative asphalt output in August was 245 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from the previous month. The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to reduced demand caused by rainfall [12]. Group 8: Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht per kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.5 Thai baht per kg. The supply of rubber is increasing, but the demand has not improved significantly. The rubber market is expected to fluctuate [13].
今日早评-20250901
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-01 01:45