金信期货日刊-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - The palm oil and pulp industries are rated as "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [3][22][26] Report's Core View - The decline in palm oil futures prices is due to multiple factors, including ample supply, weakening demand, international trade policies, and competition from substitutes. Market participants should closely monitor relevant factors and adjust strategies in a timely manner [3] - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term, influenced by policy announcements and Fed's interest - rate cut signals [6] - Gold is in short - term small - range oscillations, and with the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, it is bullish for gold [10][11] - Iron ore shows a wide - range oscillation pattern, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] - Glass prices are supported at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] - Pulp is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [26] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Palm Oil - On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9349 yuan, down 160 yuan or 1.69% from the previous day [3] - In Malaysia, the estimated palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, increasing supply pressure [3] - Except for China, the demand from most major buyers has weakened, and the high price of palm oil and the narrowing price difference with soybean oil have reduced market purchasing willingness [3] - Some countries' import restrictions or tariff adjustments have led to a decrease in international market demand, and the increasing production and more competitive prices of substitutes have diverted consumer demand [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The release of "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" and Fed Chairman Waller's support for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, with continued cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, are the influencing factors. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - After the Fed Chairman released positive signals at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September increased, which is bullish for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in short - term small - range oscillations [10][11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it showed a pattern of rising and then falling today, with obvious wide - range oscillations recently. Although iron - water production remains high, the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products has not changed, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it rose sharply near the end of the session, and the lower support was effective. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The recent large cumulative increase in the oil market, combined with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, has reduced the market's motivation to chase up prices and increased the pressure for profit - taking. It should be treated with an oscillating and bearish view [22] Technical Analysis - Pulp - Inventory is the biggest constraint, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement remains average. Today, the price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shandong has been lowered. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [26]