需求阶段回暖，尝试逢低做多

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Performance: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - Spot Prices: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - Basis and Spread: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - Profit: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - Supply: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - Inventory: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - Deep - processing: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - Demand - Automobile: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - Demand - Real Estate: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - Import and Export: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - Cost - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].