东吴证券晨会纪要-20250901

Macro Strategy - The central government's budget for 2025 is expected to increase by 282.5 billion yuan, with significant growth in defense spending (119.5 billion yuan), debt interest payments (77.2 billion yuan), and scientific research (36.2 billion yuan) [1] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market is experiencing accumulating divergences, with a recommendation to reduce exposure to high-priced targets while increasing ETF allocations to balance risks [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 4 basis points to 1.785% during the week of August 18-22, 2025 [3] Green Bonds - In the week of August 18-22, 2025, 16 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 6.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.34 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Company Analysis Top Group (601689) - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 3.358 billion yuan and 4.312 billion yuan, respectively, due to intense industry competition and a decline in profitability [5] Xusheng Group (603305) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 500 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 750 million yuan, reflecting a decrease due to declining sales from major clients and fierce competition [6] China Galaxy (601881) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 13 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, 7%, and 7% respectively [7] Better Ray (835185) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 remains at 1.2 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 29%, 25%, and 19% [8] Nanwang Energy (003035) - The company achieved a revenue of 1.603 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and a net profit of 214 million yuan, up 4.5% [9] Chip Source Micro (688037) - The company reported a significant improvement in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 430 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.6% [10] Xinhua Du (002264) - The company reported a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but a net profit of 147 million yuan, an increase of 1.2% [11] Zhongmin Energy (600163) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 920 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 11.2, 10.3, and 9.9 [12] Water Well Square (600779) - The company reported a revenue of approximately 1.498 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.8%, and a net profit of approximately 105 million yuan, a decline of 56.5% [13] China Heavy Truck (000951) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 1.658 billion yuan, 1.894 billion yuan, and 2.165 billion yuan due to expected declines in heavy truck exports to Russia [14] Juewei Food (603517) - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting net profits of 400 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 560 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 77%, 26%, and 10% [15] Old White Dry Wine (600559) - The company reported a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, an increase of 5.4% [16] Chinese Online (300364) - The company is undergoing a critical transformation period, with a focus on new business investments, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [17] China Pacific Insurance (601601) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 51.6 billion yuan, 52.7 billion yuan, and 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on high-quality development [18] Guomao Co., Ltd. (603915) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 300 million yuan, 343 million yuan, and 400 million yuan, with a focus on enhancing competitiveness through new product launches [19] Huazhong CNC (300161) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 70 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 197 million yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on the high-end CNC system market [20] New Energy (02688.HK) - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 70.9 billion yuan, 74.2 billion yuan, and 78.0 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth outlook [21]