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20250901申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250901
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-09-01 02:23

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed trends: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,902 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 80.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 157,950 tons with a daily increase of 1,850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 6.12 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 58,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,765 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 2.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 481,150 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,421 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 174.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 209,676 tons with a daily increase of 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,991 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 262,500 tons with a daily decrease of 4,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 278,300 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,530 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,950 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 175.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,895 tons with a daily decrease of 30 tons [2].