申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250901

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Friday, polyolefins mainly declined. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. International crude oil prices have fluctuated at low levels recently, which also has a certain impact on the short - term trend of chemicals. In the future, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion, the rhythm of spot production scheduling and maintenance, especially the short - term repair rhythm on the supply side. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Prices: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7287, 7299, and 7230 respectively, with price drops of - 71, - 63, and - 84 and declines of - 0.96%, - 0.86%, and - 1.15% compared to two days ago. For拉丝PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6995, and 6882 respectively, with price drops of - 46, - 38, and - 55 and declines of - 0.66%, - 0.54%, and - 0.79% compared to two days ago. [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 282715, 6342, and 12925 respectively, and the open interests were 440365, 29448, and 12908 respectively, with changes of 26798, 2196, and - 10361. The trading volumes of拉丝PP futures for January, May, and September contracts were 217926, 4683, and 9349 respectively, and the open interests were 528243, 41267, and 7157 respectively, with changes of 31778, 1008, and - 6409. [2] - Spreads: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 12, 69, and - 57 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 48, and - 44. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 21, 113, and - 92 respectively, compared to previous values of - 13, 96, and - 83. [2] Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2365 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2376 yuan/ton, 6550 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6820 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. [2] - Mid - stream: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7700, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7750 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7300 - 7700, 7250 - 7450 (also 8100 - 8250 in North China), and 7400 - 7800. The current price ranges of拉丝PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6850 - 7000, 6800 - 7000, and 6800 - 7050 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6900 - 7050, 6900 - 7000, and 6850 - 7100. [2] News - On Friday (August 29), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.01 per barrel, down $0.59 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $64.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.12 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.9 - $68.39. [2]