Soochow Securities·2025-09-01 02:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - Zinc: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - Tin: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - Gold: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].