LPG：供需维持宽松，短期偏弱震荡，丙烯：现货价格支撑仍在，关注回落风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG supply and demand remain loose, with short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. - Propylene spot prices still have support, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2510 closed at 4,411 yesterday with a 0.05% increase, and 4,334 at night with a - 1.75% change; PG2511 closed at 4,324 yesterday with a - 0.18% change, and 4,260 at night with a - 1.48% change; PL2601 closed at 6,409 yesterday with a - 0.64% change, and 6,397 at night with a - 0.19% change; PL2602 closed at 6,441 yesterday with a - 0.68% change, and 6,432 at night with a - 0.14% change [1]. - LPG Position and Trading Volume: PG2510 had a trading volume of 97,396 yesterday, an increase of 28,672 from the previous day, and a position of 85,415, a decrease of 2,174; PG2511 had a trading volume of 20,455, an increase of 6,399, and a position of 33,149, an increase of 456; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,066, unchanged, and a position of 5,095, an increase of 198; PL2602 had a trading volume of 5, an increase of 1, and a position of 849, a decrease of 4 [1]. - LPG Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 189 yesterday, compared to 191 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 189, compared to 191; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 166, compared to 125; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 141, compared to 100; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 66, compared to 25 [1]. - LPG Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared to 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, compared to 47.3% last week [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. Market Information - Saudi Aramco CP: In September 2025, Saudi Aramco's CP for propane was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; for butane, it was 490 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The equivalent landed US - dollar cost for propane was 582 US dollars/ton, and for butane was 552 US dollars/ton; the equivalent RMB landed cost for propane was about 4,599 yuan/ton, and for butane was about 4,362 yuan/ton (excluding terminal handling fees) [6]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Many enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [7]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple LPG factories have maintenance plans. For example, Shengli Refinery in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal output of 400 and a loss of 400; Dongming Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from July 29 to the end of September 2025, with a normal output of 100 and a loss of 100 [7].