合成橡胶：短期跟随宏观情绪区间运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, with a neutral fundamental outlook, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, facing both upward pressure and downward support. The upward pressure comes from the high - supply situation of cis - butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as the relatively high short - term arrival volume of butadiene. The downward support is due to the medium - to long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber主力 (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 87,677 lots, a decrease of 44,620 lots; the open interest was 35,493 lots, a decrease of 5,585 lots; and the trading volume was 519.883 million yuan, a decrease of 266.886 million yuan. The basis (Shandong cis - butadiene - futures主力) was 50 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) was 15 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: The prices of private cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China decreased by 50 yuan, 50 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,950 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,400 yuan and 9,525 yuan respectively, with the Shandong price decreasing by 65 yuan [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.0112%, remaining unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,285 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; and the cis - butadiene profit was - 185 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1]. 2. Industry News - Inventory Information: As of August 27, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, with the market influenced by factors such as the high - supply pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene arrival volume, and policy support [4].