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LLDPE：短期偏弱，中期震荡行情
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-01 02:33

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]