棉花：期价受消息影响导致波动率上升

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton futures price has increased in volatility due to news [1] - The ICE cotton futures declined by about 1% last Friday, and concerns about the export prospects of US cotton continued to keep ICE cotton in a weak and volatile state [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2601 yesterday was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 1.21%, and the night - session closing price was 14,015 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The closing price of CY2511 yesterday was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 19,960 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound, down 1.11%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 683,467 lots, an increase of 394,578 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 754,836 lots, an increase of 54,447 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,926 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 24,110 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 7,762, a decrease of 67, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warrants was 69, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [2] - Spot Data: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,183 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; the price in Shandong was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price in Hebei was 15,308 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The 3128B index was 15,328 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The international cotton index M was 74.85 cents/pound, up 0.82%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the arrival price was 21,818 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2] - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1400. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck continued to rise slightly [3] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average and slowed down compared with the previous period. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The C40S and low - count yarn varieties were the main ones, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Some large spinning mills raised prices, but there were few followers, and the overall cotton yarn price remained stable [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]