铜周报20250831：旺季来临，内外宏观向上，沪铜偏强-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong, but no specific overall industry investment rating is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak season and positive domestic and international macro - economic trends, the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Catalog Price Data - This week, the spot premium first declined and then increased, and it is expected to remain firm next week [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation was limited this week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.33 per ton week - on - week to - $41.48 per ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at nine ports increased by 148,800 tons week - on - week to 710,600 tons [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [20] - Due to increased maintenance in September and a shortage of anode plate supply, the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline by more than 4% month - on - month [22] - In July, the net import of refined copper in China was 178,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [24] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week [26] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week, with weak orders and pick - ups, and it is expected to rebound next week [29] - From August 1st to 24th, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [32] - Production is based on demand, and the component output in August changed little month - on - month [33] - The planned production volume of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual volume of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - The manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.1 points month - on - month, and the business climate improved [40] - The year - on - year increase of the US core PCE price index in July reached 2.9%, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact is still controllable [41] - The annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% [44]