Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. For treasury bond futures, conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, while aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term [13][14]. - For black commodities, the short - term price of steel and ore may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The price of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For ferroalloys, pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract, and maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds for manganese silicon [18][20][21]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The price of lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a wide - range shock without new drivers. The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the price of polysilicon will also operate in a wide - range shock [25][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the price of cotton will follow the macro and external cotton market fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price of sugar is expected to be under pressure due to increased supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term. The price of eggs may not reverse in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see. The price of apples can consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of corn can consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. It is recommended to wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract [29][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The price of fuel oil will follow the price of crude oil. The price of plastics will be weak in a shock. It is advisable to pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of rubber on dips. The price of methanol will continue to be weak in a shock. The price of caustic soda will be strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The price of asphalt will follow the price of crude oil. For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The price of liquefied petroleum gas will follow the price of crude oil and is expected to be bearish in the long term. The price of pulp rebounds after hitting the bottom, and it is recommended to observe. The price of logs is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to observe. The price of urea will operate in a strong shock in the short term. The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are gradually improving, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [39][40][46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [10]. - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [10]. - Chinese official Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US officials [10]. - In the first half of the year, Central Huijin "stood still" in ETF investments, and it spent over 210 billion yuan on increasing its holdings of 12 ETF products. By the end of the second quarter, the total market value of ETFs held by two companies reached 1.28 trillion yuan, accounting for about 30% of the total ETF scale [10]. - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Macron stated that France and Germany are determined to jointly defend the EU's legislative and digital sovereignty [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The A - share market had a good performance on Friday, but the manufacturing industry is still below the prosperity level. The stock market accelerated after continuous rises in August, and the index showed differentiation. There is a possibility of rhythm adjustment for stock index futures [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, and aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term. The PMI data in August stabilized after a rapid decline. The stock index and long - term bonds showed a strong negative correlation. The key contradiction in the bond market lies in the stock index [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - The short - term price may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The implementation of relevant policies has limited impact on the supply of steel products. The real demand in the downstream of steel is limited, and there may be a situation of "no peak season in the peak season". The supply is expected to remain strong, and the cost and profit are affected by the price of raw materials [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the capital game is intense. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short term, and the demand from steel mills provides support, but there is also downward pressure [20]. Ferroalloys - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract. For manganese silicon, maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds. The current supply of both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is in an oversupply situation [21][22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, and leave the market flexibly if a positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply of soda ash may increase, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is stable. The inventory pressure of glass has been relieved, but there is potential pressure on upstream shipments [23]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The demand for aluminum is weak, and the supply of alumina is in excess [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Without new drivers, the price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. In September, the demand is in the peak season, and there may be inventory reduction, which will support the price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the key lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers in Xinjiang. The price of polysilicon will operate in a wide - range shock, and policy expectations will affect the price [27][28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the supply is low while the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price is affected by the international cotton price and macro factors. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak [29]. Sugar - The import volume has increased significantly, and the short - term supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to the support at the low point in mid - August. The international and domestic sugar markets are affected by multiple factors such as production and demand [30][31]. Eggs - The 10 - contract is a post - festival contract, and there is a game between weak reality and the expectation of concentrated culling of old hens. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see, and be cautious when buying at the bottom. The current supply pressure is high, but the futures position has reached a new high [33]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of early - maturing apples is high - quality and high - price, and the price of stored apples is relatively stable. The new - season Fuji apple price will be affected by early - maturing and old - season apples [35]. Corn - Consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. The domestic corn price is weak, and the supply and demand are under pressure. The policy grain supply and substitutes affect the demand, and the downstream processing demand is weak [35][36]. Jujubes - It is recommended to wait and see. The local rainfall in Xinjiang may affect the quality of jujubes, and the transaction price in the production area is stable [37]. Live Pigs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. The supply pressure in August was high, and it may continue in September. The demand is gradually recovering, but it is difficult to reverse the situation of "strong supply and weak demand" [37][38]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The price will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will take a long time, and the inventory data shows that the peak - season demand is approaching the end. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine event and the OPEC+ meeting [39]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The future focus is on whether the price reflects the expected supply - demand surplus or geopolitical and macro factors. The supply of fuel oil is affected by domestic refinery demand and inventory [39][40]. Plastics - The supply pressure is relatively large, and it is expected to be weak in a shock. The positive sentiment from the elimination of backward production capacity has faded, and the supply is high while the demand is weak [40]. Rubber - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity on dips, and be cautious when chasing high. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the raw material price and demand affect the price [40][41]. Methanol - The price will continue to be weak in a shock. The port inventory is increasing, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The spot price is weakening [42]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The transportation restriction has been lifted, and the demand is expected to increase. The futures price is also strong [43]. Asphalt - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The asphalt fundamentals are stable, and the price is affected by the international oil price [43][44]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The industry is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price follows the crude oil price and is affected by the import volume. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the long term [47]. Pulp - The fundamentals are unchanged, and the price rebounds after hitting the bottom. Observe whether the port inventory continues to decline and the spot transaction and demand after Chenming's resumption of production [48]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a shock state, and the spot price is stable. The supply may face pressure, but the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [48]. Urea - The short - term export is optimistic, and the futures price will operate in a strong shock. The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The factory maintenance is increasing, and the daily output is below 190,000 tons [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are gradually improving, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The industry chain has no obvious contradictions, and the price is affected by raw materials and demand [50].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250901
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-01 02:29