烧碱：震荡行情

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is in a volatile situation. Near - term, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports, but domestic demand is stable. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the quality of the peak season depends on export performance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 2670, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2719, and the basis is 49 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda price in Shandong remained stable today, with little price change. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries [2] Market Condition Analysis - In the past week, the caustic soda futures price corrected, mainly due to near - month warehouse receipts (mostly from Zhejiang, posing high pressure on near - month long positions) and weak exports (sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, poor export signing, and weak 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali price difference). Domestic demand is stable, non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season, alumina production is at a high level, and there is an expected new production capacity of 360 million tons in Guangxi at the end of this year, which may drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]