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甲醇:短期偏弱,中期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-01 02:27

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of methanol are under pressure, showing a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to present a volatile pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions of methanol are significant, with the near - end port inventory continuously and substantially increasing, and there is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas is gradually weakening, which may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and after the commodity valuation enters a reasonable range, investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals of methanol have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: The closing price of methanol was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume was 419,697 lots, down 41,517 lots; the open interest was 821,019 lots, up 35,186 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,746 tons, down 520 tons; the trading volume was 994.542 million yuan, down 97.621 million yuan. The basis was - 136, up 5; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 157, down 9 [2]. - Spot Market: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Northern Shaanxi was 2,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Futures Research] - Inventory Situation: As of August 27, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1299300 tons, an increase of 223300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 20.75%. This week, the methanol port inventory accelerated and significantly increased. There were 393300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges during the period. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas of Jiangsu was relatively stable supported by a small amount of reverse flow to the inland, due to the concentrated discharge of foreign vessels, the inventory still increased significantly. In Zhejiang, one olefin plant remained shut down, but other rigid demands were stable, and the inventory continued to increase with the discharge of foreign vessels. The inventory in South China ports continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, and there were still some vessels being unloaded that were not yet included in the inventory. The local and surrounding downstream consumption remained stable, and the inventory also increased. In Fujian, the downstream demand was average, and the inventory continued to increase under the stable supply of imported cargoes [4]. - Market Outlook: In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure and the market is in a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, and the near - end port inventory continues to increase significantly. There is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5].