担心供应过剩，油价维持震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is concerned about oversupply in the oil market, and it anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile and weak in the short - term, with an operational suggestion of a bearish outlook on the market [2][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - China's INE crude oil futures main contract price trend and the US WTI crude oil futures continuous contract price trend are presented, but specific price trends are not detailed in the provided text. Data sources are Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [11][14] 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Analysis - China's Crude Oil Production: In July, China's above - scale industrial crude oil output was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to July, the output was 126.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [20] - China's Crude Oil Imports: From January to July 2025, China's total crude oil imports were 326.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.77%. In July, imports were 47.204 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52% [22] - China's Refinery Utilization and Processing Volume: In July, China's above - scale industrial crude oil processing volume was 63.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. From January to July, the processing volume was 424.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [25] - US Crude Oil Production and Refinery Utilization: As of the week ending August 22, the US daily crude oil output was 13.44 million barrels [31] - US Oil Rig Count: As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the number of oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week [34] - US Crude Oil Inventories: As of the week ending August 22, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 822.493 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.39 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 222.334 million barrels, a decrease of 1.24 million barrels; distillate inventory was 114.242 million barrels, a decrease of 1.79 million barrels [37] 3.3 Future Outlook - Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand: Goldman Sachs' report indicates that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026, the global oil market will have an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels, which will lead to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [53] - Crude Oil Future Outlook: The US government will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, raising the overall tax rate to 50%. India initially reduced Russian crude oil purchases but recently resumed procurement plans for September - October. Technically, oil prices will remain volatile and weak in the short - term, with an operational suggestion of a bearish outlook [53][54]