商品策略周报：风速下降-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market funds are like a seesaw, shifting from the anti - involution logic to the industrial supply - demand logic. The 2601 contract faces a large discount and high industrial inventory. Before the implementation of specific anti - involution policies, the market focus has switched to the industrial supply - demand logic. Recently, domestic agricultural products have continued to decline, with low valuations and record - high positions, indicating intense capital games [3][5]. - In terms of specific sector varieties, building materials are bearish, and feed is bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - long Market Conditions - Last week's overall market was weak, with anti - involution and energy - chemical varieties showing a downward trend. As the 2509 contract entered the delivery month, the delivery price provided a benchmark, and the next main contract will compete around this price. The current contradiction is the large basis discount and the lack of a clear implementation path for specific anti - involution industrial policies. Before the implementation of expected policies, the 2601 contract of anti - involution varieties will still trade based on the logic of basis regression. Glass, soda ash, coking coal and other varieties have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. Short - term bearishness is due to the actual supply - demand logic of the industrial end, while long - term bullishness is supported by anti - involution at the bottom. Once demand shows signs of improvement, the overall valuation of industrial products will significantly increase [4]. - Exchange measures such as position limits and fee increases have led to large - scale capital outflows from anti - involution varieties. The pre - condition for large funds to participate in a variety is sufficient trading volume and open interest for smooth entry and exit. When the liquidity of a variety begins to shrink, large funds will choose to partially exit to avoid liquidity risks, causing price adjustments [4]. Capital Flow and Market Logic - Capital has gradually flowed out of black and oil - seed varieties, and the soybean - palm oil spread has rebounded. From the perspective of the term structure, the reverse - spread structure of glass, soda ash and other varieties has exerted significant selling pressure on the 2601 contract. The industrial supply - demand logic and basis are suppressing price rebounds. Without signs of improvement in demand, even with anti - involution expectations, funds are hesitant to take action. Therefore, the industrial - end logic may dominate in the future [5]. Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital flow was - 7.401 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals had a capital outflow of 322 million yuan, non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 952 million yuan, black metals had an inflow of 166 million yuan, energy had an outflow of 663 million yuan, chemicals had an inflow of 156 million yuan, feed and breeding had an outflow of 257 million yuan, oil - seeds had an outflow of 2.855 billion yuan, and soft commodities had an inflow of 692 million yuan [9]. - Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data: The data includes price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position - difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - Energy - Chemical Weekly Data: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - Agricultural Products Weekly Data: It shows data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].