宏观经济与转债策略研究系列之一：反内卷：宏观演变、行业分化和转债策略

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" policy is characterized by administrative directives or legal measures to limit production capacity in upstream industries, while downstream industries rely on self-discipline to reduce competition [1][45]. - The "anti-involution" phenomenon began with the concentration of orders in mid-2020, leading to capacity expansion until mid-2021, followed by a decline in global demand in the second half of 2021 and subsequent recovery of supply [1][45]. - Industrial enterprises experienced a dual decline in revenue and profit in 2022, but began to exchange price for volume in 2023, resulting in increased revenue but decreased profitability [1][45]. Group 2 - The report categorizes industries based on revenue quality, revenue capability, and asset quality, leading to three classifications: stable allocation, opportunistic allocation, and cautious allocation [2][46]. - Stable allocation industries are those with consistently rising revenue profit margins, while opportunistic allocation includes industries with rising revenue growth but declining profit margins, excluding those with significantly rising debt ratios [2][46]. - Cautious allocation includes industries with rising revenue but declining profit margins and increasing debt ratios, as well as those with both declining revenue and profit margins [2][46]. Group 3 - The report outlines three convertible bond strategies: stable allocation, opportunistic allocation, and cautious allocation, each with two different bond portfolios [3]. - The performance of these portfolios from 2022 to 2024 indicates that stable allocation portfolios performed better, while opportunistic allocation showed a larger decline in 2022 but outperformed cautious allocation in 2023 and 2024 [4]. - From 2025 onwards, the performance of different portfolios needs to be observed in two phases, with the first half of 2025 showing good performance for opportunistic allocation and cautious allocation portfolios [4].