股指期货月报：8月指数继续走强，科技股强势令标的指数分化-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index are in an upward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to rise in the future. The short - term impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on the market has been digested, and domestic policy goals have been initially achieved. The US may cut interest rates in the second half of the year, which could open up more domestic policy space. With the appreciation of the RMB, foreign capital and repatriated funds are attracted. The domestic economy has policy support at the bottom and is driven by economic recovery and high - tech industries at the top. The "national team" has announced share - increases, and relevant departments are promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [8]. - Technology remains the main driving force, with the rise concentrated in technology blue - chip stocks, showing some extreme trading structure characteristics. There is still room for the re - evaluation of Chinese assets, but its sustainability requires the support of macro - policies. Futures should be intervened during pull - backs [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Suggestions - Suggestions include seizing the structural opportunities of the semi - annual report performance wave, focusing on technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power with stable profitability, and paying attention to the dynamic allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [2]. 3.2 Market Performance - In August, global indices mainly rose. Domestic indices generally outperformed overseas indices, with the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Among the Shenwan primary industries, most sectors rose, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors leading the way. Only the banking sector declined [13]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Situation 3.3.1 Overseas Situation - In the US, employment data in July slowed more than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation pressure continued in July, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, and the expectation of a future interest - rate cut will continue to be affected by economic data [23]. - In the Eurozone, the CPI remained the same as the previous value in July. The service PMI in July increased and remained above the boom - bust line, with the service PMI at 51.0, the manufacturing PMI at 49.8, and the composite PMI at 51.0 [24]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - In July, the official manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, at 49.3%. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, still above the critical point [35]. - Export growth continued to increase in July, with the export amount increasing 7.2% year - on - year. The total export in the first seven months was 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The future Sino - US tariff game will affect import - export data and A - share risk appetite [36]. - The growth rate of social retail sales continued to slow down in July, with a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate of the automobile sub - item turned negative, at - 1.5%. The CPI returned to zero in July, and the PPI remained negative, with the CPI at 0.0% year - on - year and the PPI at - 3.6% year - on - year [37]. - From January to July, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment slowed down to 1.6%, and real - estate investment continued to decline, with the growth rate of real - estate development investment at - 12.0% [45]. - Real - estate data remained weak. From January to July, the growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 12.0%, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing was 4.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the newly - started area was 19.5% [46]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size remained negative. In July, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year, and from January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased 1.7% year - on - year [57]. - At the end of July, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 9.0%. The growth rate of M2 continued to rise, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. In July, M2 increased 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 increased 5.6% year - on - year [58]. 3.4 Liquidity - Since May, the capital interest rate (DR007) has remained at 1.4%, and future policy developments should be continuously monitored [62]. - The market trading was active in August, with the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan on multiple trading days. The margin trading balance continued to rise in August and has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 Index Valuation - In August, the index mainly fluctuated upward, and the valuation center also rose. The PE quantiles showed a differentiated trend. As of August 29, the PE of the ChiNext Index was 41.01, with a quantile of 35.55 since 2015, in the medium - low historical level. The PE of the STAR 50 Index was 185.69, with a quantile of 99.93 since its listing in 2020, at a historical high [75].