国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: The fundamentals have no new drivers, and it is waiting for a pullback [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is undergoing a correction [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][9]. - Soybean No. 1: It rebounds after an oversold situation [2][9]. - Corn: It is moving in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar: It is consolidating within a range [2][16]. - Cotton: The futures price volatility has increased due to news [2][21]. - Eggs: There is strong near - term trading [2][28]. - Hogs: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreased, and the price rebounded [2][30]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals Tracking: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and the night - session was 9,290 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,398 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the night - session was 8,312 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1,421,486 tons. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil in September to $124 per ton from $74 in August [6]. - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - Fundamentals Tracking: DCE soybean No. 1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,945 yuan/ton with a + 0.46% change, and the night - session was 3,959 yuan/ton with a + 0.66% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,055 yuan/ton with a + 0.53% change, and the night - session was 3,060 yuan/ton with a + 0.43% change [9]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 29, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to technical buying. China's potential non - procurement of US soybeans still weighs on the market. US North Dakota's soybean yield may be limited by cold weather in spring [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of + 1 [11]. Corn - Fundamentals Tracking: The closing price of C2509 was 2,238 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% daily change and 2,248 yuan/ton with a 0.45% night - session change. The closing price of C2511 was 2,191 yuan/ton with a 0.60% daily change and 2,192 yuan/ton with a 0.05% night - session change [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port - collection prices range from 2,200 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices range from 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - Fundamentals Tracking: The raw sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton with a - 10 change [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated. India's monsoon precipitation is 6.1% higher than the long - period average. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July [16]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Cotton - Fundamentals Tracking: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,240 yuan/ton with a 1.21% change, and the night - session was 14,015 yuan/ton with a - 1.58% change. CY2511's daily - session closing price was 20,140 yuan/ton with a 0.25% change, and the night - session was 19,960 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% change [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the basis is stable. ICE cotton futures were weak due to concerns about export prospects [23][24]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. Eggs - Fundamentals Tracking: The closing price of egg 2510 was 2,939 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.41% change, and egg 2601 was 3,322 yuan/500 kg with a 0.24% change [28]. - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Hogs - Fundamentals Tracking: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,250 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,740 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2511 was 13,555 yuan/ton, hog 2601 was 13,870 yuan/ton, and hog 2603 was 13,135 yuan/ton [30]. - Market Logic: At the weekend, large - scale hog producers reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts [32]. - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of 1 [31]. Peanuts - Fundamentals Tracking: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 7,978 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and PK511 was 7,784 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [34]. - Spot Market Focus: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply volume was affected by rain, and new peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [35]. - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [36].