贵金属周报（AU、AG）：避险和降息预期共振，贵金属强势反弹-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices rose strongly. The main influencing factors include political pressure weakening the Fed's independence, economic data and consumer confidence index consolidating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, a weakening dollar index, geopolitical tensions, and market risk - aversion sentiment. Silver outperformed gold due to key mineral tariffs. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, but the rate - cut may not exceed 25bp. [4] - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy on dips. [4] - In the long - term, gold is bullish, while the upside potential of silver should be treated with caution. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) - Gold and Silver Price and Gold - Silver Ratio: - London spot gold rose from $3371.235/oz to $3446.805/oz, a weekly increase of 2.24%. Shanghai gold futures rose from 773.40 yuan/g to 785.12 yuan/g, a 1.52% increase. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased from 84.14 to 83.65, a 0.58% decline. [3] - London spot silver rose from $38.8880/oz to $39.6910/oz, a 2.06% increase. Shanghai silver futures rose from 9192 yuan/kg to 9386 yuan/kg, a 2.11% increase. [3] - ETF and CFTC Position: - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 increased from 956.77 tons to 977.68 tons, a 2.19% increase. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 1721 contracts to 214311 contracts, a 0.81% increase. [3] - The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 increased from 15289 tons to 15310 tons, a 0.14% increase. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 83 contracts to 46466 contracts, a 0.18% decrease. [3] - Inventory Data: - SHFE gold inventory increased from 37.455 tons to 39.624 tons, a 5.79% increase. COMEX gold inventory increased from 1199.47 tons to 1210.73 tons, a 0.94% increase. [3] - SHFE silver inventory increased from 1109 tons to 1196 tons, a 7.83% increase. COMEX silver inventory increased from 15816 tons to 16119 tons, a 1.92% increase. SGE silver inventory decreased from 1287 tons to 1282 tons, a 0.39% decrease. [3] 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking) - Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Spreads: - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.7244 to 97.8477, a 0.13% increase. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased from 7.1712 to 7.1221, a 0.68% decrease. [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 3.7069% to 3.6188%, a 2.38% decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 4.2615% to 4.2245%, a 0.87% decrease. The US 10 - year real interest rate decreased from 1.85% to 1.82%, a 1.62% decrease. [3] - Economic Data: - The US manufacturing and service PMI both declined. The US retail sales data showed mixed performance. The second - quarter GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. Employment cooled significantly, with a rise in the unemployment rate and a decrease in job vacancies. [56][57][58][62] - Inflation showed signs of rising pressure, with increases in core PCE and consumer inflation expectations. [68][70][71][72] - Eurozone Data: - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered slightly, while the service PMI declined. The eurozone GDP rebounded from the bottom. The inflation data of the eurozone and the UK showed certain trends. [76][77][78] - Central Bank Gold Purchases: - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month. In July 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73960000 ounces (about 2300.41 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60000 ounces (about 1.86 tons). [85] - In Q1 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 21.4%. Global central banks are expected to maintain net gold purchases. [85]