Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - Macro and Industry News: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250901
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-01 03:32