合成橡胶投资周报：丁二烯基本面支撑，现货上调BR偏强运行-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of butadiene rubber is "oscillating". In the short - term, the trend of cis - polybutadiene rubber is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the arrival of butadiene ocean - going vessels and the maintenance of cis - polybutadiene rubber on the fundamentals [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton this cycle. The cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber remained strong, but downstream buyers still tried to push down prices. Although the domestic production and capacity utilization of cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, considering the upcoming maintenance in September - November, the bearish sentiment in the market decreased [3][4]. - In terms of influencing factors, supply is bearish due to the operation status of some plants; demand is neutral with different situations in the semi - steel and all - steel tire markets; inventory is neutral with small changes and the need to pay attention to future inventory changes; basis, spread/price ratio are neutral; profit is bearish affected by production costs and market prices; geopolitical and macro factors are bearish because of OPEC+ production increase, weak domestic economic indicators and capacity reduction in the petrochemical industry [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber in China was 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of August 28, 2025. The production and capacity utilization of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, and the cost support led to an increase in the supply price of mainstream suppliers. However, downstream buyers still pressured prices [4]. 3.2 Price Comparison - The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - The prices of butadiene, cis - polybutadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber industry chain also had different degrees of change. For example, the market price of butadiene in Hangzhou increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [9]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries in China in 2025, including those of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC. It also details the maintenance situations of butadiene and high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber plants [10][11]. 3.5 Price Spread and Basis Analysis - Analyzes the cross - variety price spreads and month - to - month spreads of BR, as well as the seasonal analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC price spreads. It also presents the basis analysis of cis - polybutadiene rubber in different regions [12][13][22]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - In terms of butadiene, it shows the monthly production, apparent consumption, port and terminal inventory, as well as the production cost and profit. For cis - polybutadiene rubber, it includes the design capacity, production, import and export, inventory, cost, and profit. For styrene - butadiene rubber, it covers the capacity, production, inventory, and import and export [44][75][87]. 3.7 Downstream Market - Analyzes the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream products such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel) and conveyor belts [101][107][113].