南华尿素产业链数据周报20250831-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the 15 reverse spread opportunity in the urea market. The current domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains weak, but there are positive expectations after the parade and due to the Indian tender. The second - batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and there may be a phased rebound. However, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract of urea is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises such as Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical carried out maintenance this period. Enterprises that resumed production include Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Jingyuan Coal Industry Group. The daily urea output next week will be around 200,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase month - on - month. The total inventory at Chinese ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons month - on - month, a 19.76% increase [4]. Demand - Domestic demand remains weak. The agricultural top - dressing demand in the northern region has basically ended. The compound fertilizer industry has a large sales pressure on finished products recently, with a low operating rate, limited demand for urea raw materials, and low acceptance of high - priced urea supplies [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1660 (01 basis - 86), and in Henan was 1670 (01 basis - 76) [5]. Strategy - The short - term supply - demand weakness persists, but there are positive expectations. Pay attention to the 15 reverse spread opportunity during the Indian tender on September 2. In the medium term, the second - batch of exports will support demand, and there may be a phased rebound. However, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [5].