纯碱价格窄幅震荡，价格持续承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its pattern of oscillating at the bottom. Supply contraction and inventory reduction bring short - term boosts, but the key lies in whether the demand side can improve continuously. If the downstream glass market shows no improvement, the rebound space for soda ash prices will be limited. One should closely monitor device dynamics, the sustainability of inventory reduction, and changes in macro - policy sentiment. [9][40] - In terms of operations, for the short - term in the single - side trading, one can look for rebound opportunities after sharp price drops, but the upside space is expected to be limited and cautious operation is required. For arbitrage, consider the 01 - 05 reverse spread strategy (short near - month and long far - month). For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options or constructing a bear spread strategy. [40][41] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - Output and Capacity Utilization Decline: As of August 28, 2025, last week's domestic soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons or 6.78%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.01%. The decline was due to equipment reduction and individual overhauls. [7][10][12] - Soda Ash Inventory Pressure Alleviates: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 20,600 tons or 1.09% from the previous Monday. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 43,300 tons or 2.27%. [8][14] - Shipment Volume and Shipment Rate Improve Continuously: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 762,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The overall soda ash shipment rate was 106.02%, a month - on - month increase of 8.23 percentage points. [17] - Profit Analysis: As of August 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 0.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton. [19][23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation - Float Glass Industry Output Increases Month - on - Month: As of August 28, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. Last week's national float glass output was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. [26] - Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases Month - on - Month: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes or 1.63%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. [30] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The report provides a comparison table of domestic regional price changes of soda ash, showing the prices of light and heavy soda ash in different regions in July and August 2025 and August 2024, as well as the month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, in the Northeast region, the price of light soda ash in August 2025 was 1400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.89%. [37][39]