供应仍偏充裕，需求跟进谨慎

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand structure of the urea market has not improved substantially. The core contradiction lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and the urea futures main contract UR2601 is currently oscillating in the range of 1600 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to be cautious [50] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Urea Futures Main Contract Trend: From August 25th - 29th, the urea futures main contract UR2601 oscillated, with a range increase of 0.29% and a range amplitude of 2.08% [6] - Urea Futures Basis Situation: On August 28th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11] 2. Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 81.73%, a 2.72% decrease from the previous week and a 6.55% increase year - on - year, still at a near - five - year high [16] - Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 20.33 tons, a 2.43% increase from the previous week and a 5.41% decrease year - on - year [18] - Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 108 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output of pipeline fertilizer gas - made urea is 27 tons, a 6.90% decrease from the previous week [22] Demand - side - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate: The capacity operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 41.12%, a 2.71% increase from the previous period and a 7.95% decrease compared to 2024 [25] - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 86.72 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and an 11.58% increase compared to 2024 [29] - Melamine Operating Rate: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 57.04%, a 10.26% increase from the previous week and a 6.38% decrease compared to 2024 [32] Inventory - side - Inventory Situation: Urea enterprise inventory is 100.3 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week; port inventory is 79.5 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week [35] Cost - side - Synthetic Ammonia Price: On August 28th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to August 21st [40] - Coal Market Operation: With the restorative rebound of the low - price anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. The current aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also flat compared to the previous period [42] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to October 2025, including data such as initial inventory, output, consumption, export, and supply - demand ratio [46] 3. Market Outlook - Supply - side: Under the joint promotion of the continuous implementation of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, high - load operation of production enterprises has become the norm. The overall urea supply continues to be in a loose pattern, and the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term [50] - Demand - side: Agricultural demand is limited, and industrial demand is gradually increasing but mainly for rigid needs. There is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [50] - Inventory - side: The overall inventory pressure still exists [50] - Cost - side: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [50] - Operation Suggestion: The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and investors are advised to be cautious [50]