SH月报：需求驱动为主，关注旺季成色-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wait for short - selling opportunities for caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. Caustic soda is currently supported by peak - season expectations and procurement, with spot prices showing a firm trend. However, the 01 contract is in the off - season, and spot prices may fall again later. [3] - The caustic soda market in August was mainly driven by demand, showing a pattern of rising first and then falling. Looking forward, caustic soda is about to enter the seasonal peak season, and the growth of non - aluminum demand may further boost the near - term market. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and short - selling opportunities can be sought after the full release of price elasticity driven by this round of demand. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In August, the caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The early - stage rise was mainly driven by downstream demand, with the main contract SH2601 rising from a minimum of 2,521 yuan/ton to a high of 2,764 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.43%. The late - stage decline was due to the approaching delivery of the near - month 09 contract, with a large number of registered warrants in the Zhejiang region, suppressing the near - month contract. [13] - Overall, the caustic soda spot market was strong due to downstream demand and peak - season expectations. After the digestion of warrants for near - month delivery, the caustic soda futures are expected to continue to be strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this price increase cycle. [14] 3.2现货价格 (Spot Prices) - Data on the spot prices of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan on August 28, 2025, were presented. [19][21][30] 3.3价差 (Price Spreads) - Model price spreads, including the spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions, were provided. [31][35] - Regional price spreads, such as the spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions, were also presented. [37][38][39] 3.4供应端 (Supply Side) - Domestic caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. In July, domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6296 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.31%. The expected production in August is 3.4074 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The operating rate in August was 79.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.69% compared to July. [44] - Information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda on a weekly basis was provided. [45] - A detailed list of the maintenance status of various caustic soda enterprises, including those in shutdown, relocation, and maintenance, as well as their recovery and planned maintenance situations, was given. The total impact on the 100% equivalent production in August is expected to be 142,960 tons. [52] - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants, including normal operation, under - load operation, and planned maintenance, were presented. [57] 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - In July 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 50,842 tons, a year - on - year increase of 100.50% and a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 232,310 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96.21%. Exports were 30,78 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.61% and a month - on - month increase of 5.79%. The cumulative exports from January to July were 2.0333 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.79%. [58] - Information on the imports and exports of solid caustic soda in July 2025 was also provided, with imports of 643.49 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 25.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.59%) and exports of 63,849.67 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.30% and a year - on - year increase of 99.89%). [66] 3.6需求端 (Demand Side) - In August, the domestic alumina market price stopped rising and started to fall. The profit of alumina was acceptable, with high production willingness and high operating capacity. The demand for alumina in the north decreased slightly, while that in the south increased significantly. The overall spot trading volume decreased, and the price was stable with a slight decline. As of August 26, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 9.52 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. [71] - In August, the domestic viscose staple fiber market price recovered. The monthly average price was 12,902 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton (0.80%). The cost side continued to decline, the inventory level decreased, and the demand support was strong. [71] 3.7库存 (Inventory) - In August, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory first increased and then decreased, with limited overall changes, while the flake caustic soda inventory increased. The inventory in Shandong, the benchmark region, had limited pressure, and enterprises had a strong willingness to raise prices. As of August 29, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 262,100 tons, a slight decrease compared to August 1. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.13%. [98] 3.8估值 (Valuation) - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. In August, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the profit level increased due to the rising spot prices. The industrial salt market first stabilized and then rose, with the monthly average price slightly lower than the previous month. The price of thermal coal first rose and then fell. [103] 3.9耗氯下游 (Chlorine - consuming Downstream) - Data on the operating rates, prices, and comprehensive profits of PVC powder, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane were provided. [128][129][132] 3.10烧碱供需平衡表 (Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Balance Sheet) - The supply - demand balance sheets of caustic soda in 2024 and 2025, including production, imports and exports, consumption, and inventory, were presented, along with their year - on - year changes. [156]