Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Moderately hold long positions in copper at low levels, go long on aluminum at low prices after a pullback, hold a wait - and - see attitude or go short on nickel at high prices, conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][13][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC shows a weak oscillation, caustic soda and styrene oscillate, conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash, rubber, urea, and methanol oscillate, and polyolefins show a wide - range oscillation [1][21][23][25] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn oscillate, apples show a strong - biased oscillation, and jujubes oscillate [1][36] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Go short on hogs and eggs at high prices, corn shows a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal shows a range oscillation, and oils show a strong - biased oscillation [1][38][40][42] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and seasonal effects. For example, in the macro - finance sector, it considers the impact of central bank policies on stock indices and treasury bonds; in the commodity sectors, it analyzes the supply - demand changes in raw materials, production status, and market consumption trends [5][7][12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Indices: A - share markets rose on Friday. As the market approaches the 4000 - point key level, it may enter an upward - oscillation phase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market showed a strong - biased oscillation on Friday. With the end of the third quarter approaching, institutional behavior may cause significant market fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: Coal prices continued to decline. After the rain stopped, production gradually resumed. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - Rebar: Futures prices dropped significantly last Friday. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, but the demand may recover after August. It is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - Glass: The downstream demand may pick up in the short term. Considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, it is recommended to go long at low prices [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is mainly affected by macro factors, showing a high - level oscillation. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [12][13] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to inventory performance [13] - Nickel: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is expected that the price will show a weak oscillation [18] - Tin: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand in the off - season is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - Silver and Gold: Affected by the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and trade negotiations, the prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to go long at low prices after a pullback [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to show a weak oscillation in the short term [21][22] - Caustic Soda: The market is in a state of destocking, and the demand from alumina is good. There are still opportunities to go long at low prices in the peak season [23][24] - Styrene: The cost and demand are under pressure, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [25][26] - Rubber: The inventory is decreasing, and the cost is supported. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [27][28] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is scattered. It is expected to be neutral in the short term [29] - Methanol: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase. However, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [30] - Polyolefins: With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the downstream demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected that the price will oscillate, and the L - to - PP spread is expected to widen [31][32] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, and the 09 contract still faces large delivery pressure. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - Apples: The prices of early - maturing apples are firm, and it is expected to maintain a strong - biased trend [36][37] - Jujubes: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and consider an arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting 03 [38][40] - Eggs: The supply is sufficient in the short term, and the price increase is limited. It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to the elimination situation [40][41][42] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops. It is recommended to go short on the 11 - contract after a rebound and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [42][43] - Soybean Meal: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by costs. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [44][45] - Oils: The domestic oil market lacks new positive news in the short term, and it is in a high - level adjustment phase. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][48][52]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250901
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:02