Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. USDA's August report shows a reduction in the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres and a 15% cut in the harvest area to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rose from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. The US cotton output decreased by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, while China's cotton output increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The global cotton output decreased by 391,000 tons month - on - month. The cotton market was volatile this week. Spinning mills' willingness to stock up remained weak during the off - season, and the pressure of finished product inventory eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness increased slightly, and inventory pressure also decreased [6]. - The demand factor has a downward impact on cotton prices. Spinning profit expanded slightly, and the loss in the inland area decreased [6]. - The inventory factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. BCO announced that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The de - stocking speed continued to accelerate, reaching the fastest rate of the year. The spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory maintained a downward trend. The operation rate of inland yarn mills remained weak. In the industrial chain inventory, the finished products still had high inventory, while the raw material inventory decreased [6]. - The warehouse receipt factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. As of August 29, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 6,514, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 260,500 tons, compared with 290,400 tons on August 22 [6]. - The basis factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remained firm, and the spot transaction price fluctuated with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.9% impurity in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract was between 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - The cost factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, with the withdrawal of some ginning factory capacities in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - The macro factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The market believes that China will continue to avoid excessive competition. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The economic data in July were generally lower than expected, and the three major indicators declined simultaneously, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable production, lower - than - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which is consistent with the seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in July and the negative growth of new credit in July, indicating insufficient domestic effective demand. The US entering the interest - rate cut channel was supported after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. Powell said that the inflation risk increased in the short term, but the impact of tariffs on prices might be one - time, and there was a downward risk in the employment market. The policy interest rate is in the restrictive range, and the Fed may adjust its policy according to the changing risk balance. After the speech, the market again bet on an interest - rate cut in September, and the probability of a rate cut increased from less than 80% to around 90% [6]. - The trading strategy is that there may still be a decline in the single - side market. In the medium - term, it is advisable to build long positions at low prices. In early September, if the US non - farm and inflation data are not conducive to the US Fed's interest - rate cut channel, it will be difficult for the overall commodities, including cotton, to rise significantly under the weak reality. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, the selling hedging pressure in the market will lead to a callback. The upward space in January is limited. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see until the market price drops before buying the far - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis, cost, and macro factors of cotton, and provides corresponding trading strategies [6] 02 Weekly Data Charts - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory have different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [11]. - Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes: The cotton production of main producing countries such as China, the US, India, Pakistan, Australia, and Brazil has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton production decreased by 2.75% year - on - year [12]. - Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes: The cotton consumption of main consuming countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year [13]. - US Cotton Situation: The US cotton weather has little impact on production. The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is changing from continuous de - stocking in the past three years to appropriate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement in May and the two rounds of import - rushing in the first half of the year, the retailer inventory has risen to a high level again, weakening the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [18][19] - Domestic New - Year Cotton Situation: The domestic new - year cotton planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The de - stocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is fast. The industrial inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, the operation rate of inland yarn mills is still weak, the finished products in the industrial chain inventory remain highly stocked, and the raw material inventory is decreasing [23][25][40]
棉花周报：关注新棉收购动态-20250901
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:21