沥青：短期跟随原油，中期供需基本面较弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with unilateral trading and arbitrage both rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of asphalt follows crude oil, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. In September, the traditional peak season, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but the contradiction is not prominent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: - In September 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41%) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17%). From January to September, the total production is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18%). The increase is due to factors such as good profit margins, sufficient low - cost raw materials, and the resumption or planned production increase of some refineries [4] - Southeast Asian asphalt resources are in tight supply, supporting import prices. Korean asphalt prices in September have slightly declined compared to August, while Singapore and Thai asphalt prices remain firm [4] - Demand: - Demand release is less than expected. In the north, some demand has slightly increased, and in the south, demand has slightly recovered with less rainfall. This year's peak season may not be prosperous, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work is likely to be disproven [4] - This week, domestic refinery shipments reached 404,000 tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. Shipments in North China decreased due to rain and project suspension, while those in East and South China increased [4] - Inventory: - This week, domestic factory inventories decreased, especially in Shandong. The reasons are intermittent production suspension, product conversion, and the fulfillment of previous orders [4] - Social inventories also decreased, with significant regional differentiation. In the Northeast, high prices and reduced production led to inventory reduction, and in the Northwest, project rush - work increased demand [4] - Cost: - International oil prices first rose for three consecutive days due to positive inventory data and geopolitical factors, then fluctuated. The initial decline was due to concerns about trade and the re - evaluation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the subsequent rise was due to a decline in US inventories [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [15][16][17] - Basis: It presents the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Supply - Production Forecast: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025, as well as the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) [23][27] - Capacity Utilization: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions (North China, South China, Northeast, Shandong, East China) from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36][37] - Maintenance Loss: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43] - Diluted Asphalt: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][47] 3.6 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [51][53][54] - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [56][57] 3.7 Demand - Shipments: It shows the shipments of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [60] - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][64][66][67][69]