有色金属周报：美元指数回落，有色板块走强-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index has declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector has strengthened. With the increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are expected to be strong; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and face long - term supply surplus pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9][81][183][184] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing prices of various non - ferrous metals are monitored, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals show different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.8, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%; the price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [5][6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors and Logics - Macro Factors: Bullish. Trump's actions and Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the upcoming US non - farm data may further boost this expectation [9] - Raw Material End: Neutral. The spot processing fee of copper ore remains low, and the port inventory has increased [9] - Smelting End: Slightly bullish. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of those using long - term contracts have increased. The electrolytic copper output in September may decline [9] - Demand End: Neutral. The copper rod开工率 has declined slightly, but it is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [9] - Inventory: Neutral. The copper inventory shows an internal decrease and external increase trend, and the global visible inventory is relatively stable [9] - Investment Views and Trading Strategies: Bullish on copper prices. In the short term, it is expected to be strong. The trading strategy includes unilateral long - term and internal - external positive arbitrage [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors and Logics - Macro Factors: Bullish. The US GDP has been revised upwards, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The overall macro sentiment has improved, but the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm is uncertain [81] - Raw Material End: Neutral. The domestic processing fee is stable, and the imported processing fee index has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, but the refinery's purchasing enthusiasm is not high [81] - Smelting End: Bearish. The output in August is expected to be high, and the output in September may decline slightly due to some refinery overhauls [81] - Demand End: Neutral. The terminal demand is in the off - season but has resilience. The export of galvanized sheets may decline [81] - Inventory: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and the internal and external inventory differentiation has deepened [81] - Investment Views and Trading Strategies: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities. Unilateral long - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [81] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Influencing Factors and Logics - Macro Factors: Slightly bullish. The US core PCE is slightly higher than the previous value, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has increased, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector [183][184] - Raw Material End: Neutral. The Indonesian nickel ore premium is stable, and the domestic port inventory has increased. The nickel iron price has rebounded, and the MHP coefficient has increased [183][184] - Smelting End: Slightly bullish. The pure nickel output is high, and the stainless steel production is expected to increase [183][184] - Demand End: Neutral. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand in the new energy sector is high [183][184] - Inventory: Neutral. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly [183][184] - Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Nickel: Bullish in the short term, with long - term supply surplus pressure. Unilateral range - bound operation and wait - and - see for arbitrage [183] - Stainless Steel: Expected to fluctuate widely. Unilateral wait - and - see or short - selling at high prices and no arbitrage [184]