Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The core view is that the pig slaughter volume has decreased, and the futures and spot prices are oscillating. The investment view is neutral, with cautious second - fattening demand, stable supply, cost support at the bottom, and the market likely to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Short - term bearish, long - term bullish. The inventory and performance of sows capable of reproduction are steadily recovering. Theoretical calculations suggest that future supply will continue to increase, with greater pressure in the fourth quarter. However, the state is optimizing production capacity and guiding weight reduction, which is beneficial for the long - term market [3]. - Demand: Bearish. The utilization rate of pens for second - fattening has decreased, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is low. Seasonal temperature drop and pre - holiday stocking demand have led to a seasonal improvement in terminal consumption [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis and monthly spread oscillated at a low level this week [3]. - Profit: Neutral. The breeding profit has turned slightly negative [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, with limited downside space [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand and a moderately loose monetary policy, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - Investment View: Neutral. Second - fattening demand is cautious, supply is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to second - fattening demand and feed prices; for arbitrage, also wait and see [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - Price Data: The report presents price data of Henan standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and first - three - grade white - striped pigs from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Production Capacity Scale: It shows the inventory data of sample sows capable of reproduction, including inventory volume, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, as well as relevant data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of newly - born healthy piglets and commodity pig slaughter numbers in five - province samples, and survival rates in pigsties and fattening [11][13][23]. - Commodity Pig Inventory Structure: It includes the inventory proportion data of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg) from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - Price Spread and Weight Data: It shows the standard - fat price spread, north - south price spread, average slaughter weight, and average weight after slaughter [33]. - Leading Enterprise Slaughter Data: It presents the monthly slaughter volume data of leading enterprises such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [42]. - Slaughter Situation: It includes daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse开工率, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as white - striped pork wholesale volume in Xinfadi Market, arrival volume in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao markets, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [49][56]. - Profit and Cost Data: It shows self - breeding and self - fattening profit, profit from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed price [58]. 3.3 Pig Capital - related Data The report shows the basis data of 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts, and the spread data between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, and 05 - 09 from 2022 - 2025 [64][70].
生猪周报（LH）：生猪出栏缩量，期现震荡运行-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:27